ADSK
Autodesk, Inc.
Technology · Software - Application · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Aggressive Growth profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The composite score of 49.8/100 is anchored by a strong profitability sub-score of 16.0/20, which reflects Autodesk's subscription-model margins and returns on assets as derived from the FY2026 10-K filing.
- The growth and momentum sub-scores of 12.5 and 12.4 respectively indicate mid-range performance on revenue and earnings trajectory metrics, contributing positively but not strongly enough to push the total above 50.
- The zero scores on dividend and theme dimensions, which together represent up to 40 points of potential model capacity, structurally cap the composite score for a company that pays no dividend and does not register macro theme exposure in the filing-mapped data.
Why Not Higher
- The dividend sub-score of 0.0/20 and theme sub-score of 0.0/20 together account for 40 points of missing model contribution, and since neither is supported by Autodesk's filing data, the composite score is mathematically constrained regardless of operational quality.
- The financial health sub-score of 12.0/20 reflects balance sheet leverage that reduces the score relative to what the profitability metrics alone would imply, signaling that debt levels disclosed in the 10-K are a meaningful drag on the overall assessment.
Data Confidence
9 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
Autodesk, Inc. is a U.S.-based enterprise software company that develops design, engineering, and construction tools, most notably its flagship AutoCAD platform alongside products like Revit, Fusion 360, and BIM 360, serving industries ranging from architecture and manufacturing to media and entertainment. The company has largely completed its transition to a subscription-based SaaS model, which structurally improves revenue predictability. The model scored Autodesk 49.8/100, reflecting a company with genuine profitability strength — the profitability sub-score of 16.0/20 is the highest individual component, indicating solid net and operating margins and meaningful ROA — but one that is partially held back by modest growth momentum and a financial health profile that reflects notable leverage. The growth sub-score of 12.5/20 and momentum sub-score of 12.4/20 suggest that while Autodesk is growing, the pace and sequential acceleration are not sufficient to push the model into higher-scoring territory. The dividend sub-score of 0.0 and theme sub-score of 0.0 further constrain the composite, as Autodesk neither pays a dividend nor maps to the macro thematic categories the model tracks. The key research tradeoff is a profitable, recurring-revenue software business with execution credibility versus balance sheet leverage and a growth profile that has not yet re-accelerated convincingly in the filing data.
Plain English
Autodesk makes the software that architects, engineers, and manufacturers use to design buildings, products, and infrastructure — think AutoCAD and similar tools. A model score of 49.8/100 means the model sees real strengths, particularly in how profitable the business is, but also meaningful limitations like debt on the balance sheet and growth that hasn't been blowing the doors off. The Medium risk rating reflects a mature software business with recurring revenue that still carries financial leverage worth monitoring. This is flagged as a 'Research Further' candidate, meaning the model thinks it warrants deeper investigation rather than a clear directional conclusion.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- The profitability sub-score of 16.0/20 is the strongest component in the model, indicating that Autodesk's fully transitioned subscription model is generating solid net margins and operating margins relative to peers captured in the filing data.
- The momentum sub-score of 12.4/20 reflects sequential quarterly improvement in revenue and earnings metrics, suggesting the business has maintained forward operating trajectory even if the pace is moderate.
- Autodesk's aggressive growth goal profile scores a best-in-model 58.5, meaning researchers focused on growth-oriented profiles will find more to work with here than the composite score alone implies, particularly given the recurring revenue base from SaaS subscriptions.
Bear Case
- The financial health sub-score of 12.0/20 is the weakest non-zero component, pointing to elevated leverage ratios and/or interest coverage metrics that add balance sheet risk to an otherwise operationally strong business.
- The growth sub-score of 12.5/20 indicates that year-over-year revenue, net income, and EPS growth as reported in the FY2026 10-K have not been strong enough to materially lift the composite model score.
- Both the dividend and theme sub-scores are 0.0/20, meaning Autodesk contributes nothing to these model dimensions — researchers prioritizing income or macro thematic exposure will find no support from filing-derived data on either front.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A meaningful acceleration in year-over-year revenue and EPS growth in subsequent annual filings — particularly if driven by expansion in construction and manufacturing verticals — would likely lift the growth sub-score and push the composite toward the 55–60 range.
- Demonstrated reduction in leverage ratios and improvement in interest coverage as reported in future 10-K filings would strengthen the financial health sub-score of 12.0/20 and reduce the balance sheet risk flagged in the current model.
Bearish Triggers
- A deceleration in sequential quarterly revenue or margin improvement, reflected in a declining momentum sub-score in a future scoring cycle, would weaken the research case and confirm that growth re-acceleration has stalled.
- Any material increase in debt load or deterioration in interest coverage ratios disclosed in future filings would further compress the financial health sub-score below 12.0/20, amplifying the balance sheet risk dimension of the bear case.
Red Flags
- The financial health sub-score of 12.0/20 suggests meaningful leverage on the balance sheet, which warrants close examination of the interest coverage ratio and debt maturity profile disclosed in the FY2026 10-K.
- A theme sub-score of 0.0 indicates that despite operating in the software sector, Autodesk's filing data does not map to the macro thematic categories the model tracks, which may reflect limited explicit exposure to high-growth structural trends as captured in regulatory disclosures.
Risk Profile
Medium RiskThe Medium risk rating reflects Autodesk's profile as a mature, largely subscription-based software business with predictable recurring revenue offset by notable financial leverage identified in the FY2026 10-K — the combination of operational stability and balance sheet risk lands the company in a middle tier rather than low or high risk. Researchers should be aware that leverage amplifies downside in adverse operating scenarios even for a company with strong margins.
Key Catalysts to Watch
The key filing-derived factors to watch are the trajectory of net and operating margin sustainability — given the 16.0/20 profitability sub-score — and whether future annual filings show meaningful debt reduction or revenue growth acceleration that would move the growth and financial health sub-scores. Sequential quarterly improvement in earnings and margins, as captured in the momentum dimension, is the most actionable near-term signal available from regulatory filing data.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.