AXP
American Express Company
Financial Services · Credit Services · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Dividend Income profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- Strong profitability and dividend scores anchor the composite, reflecting wide margins, high capital efficiency, and a consistent multi-year dividend growth record.
- Growth and momentum scores are moderate, reflecting positive but not accelerating financials and uneven quarterly trends that temper the overall rating.
- A zero score on the theme factor, due to no current macro theme assignment, meaningfully caps the total composite score.
Why Not Higher
- The absence of any macro theme assignment contributes zero points to the theme factor, which is a significant drag on the total model score.
- Revenue and earnings growth rates, while consistent, were not strong enough to earn a top-tier growth score, and quarterly momentum showed a notable 2025Q4 dip that reduced confidence in near-term trajectory.
Data Confidence
10 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Revenue grew from FY2024's $38,825,000,000 to FY2025's $41,304,000,000 (+6.4%), net income rose from FY2024's $10,129,000,000 to FY2025's $10,833,000,000 (+7.0%), and diluted EPS increased from FY2024's $14.01 to FY2025's $15.38 (+9.8%).
The model recognized consistent growth across revenue, net income, and EPS from FY2024 to FY2025, but the mid-single-digit to low-double-digit growth rates appear to have been rewarded with a moderate rather than high score, suggesting the model's threshold for top-tier growth requires more acceleration.
In FY2025, American Express posted a net margin of 26.2%, an operating margin of 33.4%, and a return on equity of 32.4%.
These figures reflect a highly profitable business where the model rewarded the combination of wide margins and strong capital efficiency, placing the score near the top of the 20-point range.
Filing evidence currently available does not support a more specific explanation for this factor.
Over the last four quarters, revenue moved from $10,321,000,000 in 2025Q2 to $10,415,000,000 in 2025Q3, peaked at $10,942,000,000 in 2025Q4, then pulled back to $10,517,000,000 in 2026Q1. Operating income followed a similar pattern, rising from $3,550,000,000 in 2025Q2 to $3,825,000,000 in 2025Q3, dipping to $3,090,000,000 in 2025Q4, then recovering to $3,778,000,000 in 2026Q1, while net income ranged from $2,885,000,000 in 2025Q2 to $2,971,000,000 in 2026Q1 with a trough of $2,462,000,000 in 2025Q4.
The quarterly data shows an uneven but broadly stable trend with a notable dip in 2025Q4 across revenue, operating income, and net income, followed by partial recovery in 2026Q1; the model appears to have rewarded the general resilience while discounting the inconsistency, yielding a mid-range score.
Dividends per share have grown each year from $2.08 in FY2022 to $2.40 in FY2023, $2.80 in FY2024, and $3.28 in FY2025, while the dividend payout ratio in FY2025 stood at 21.0%.
The model rewarded the consistent multi-year dividend growth trajectory alongside a conservative payout ratio in FY2025 that signals ample room for continued increases, resulting in a near-maximum score for this factor.
American Express is not currently assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes in the model.
The absence of a theme assignment means no thematic tailwind contributed to this component of the score; this reflects the model's current classification state and is not an indicator of the company's overall quality or positioning.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
American Express delivered steady top-line and bottom-line growth in FY2025, with revenue rising 6.4% to $41.3 billion and net income climbing 7.0% to $10.8 billion, while diluted EPS grew nearly 10% to $15.38. Profitability metrics are exceptional, with a 26.2% net margin, 33.4% operating margin, and 32.4% return on equity, underscoring the company's strong capital efficiency. The dividend track record is equally compelling, with per-share payouts growing every year from $2.08 in FY2022 to $3.28 in FY2025 at a conservative 21.0% payout ratio. Quarterly momentum has been uneven, with a notable dip in 2025Q4 followed by partial recovery in 2026Q1, and the absence of a tracked macro theme limits the model's thematic tailwind score.
Plain English
American Express is a highly profitable company that keeps growing its revenue and dividends steadily, but its quarterly results have been a bit bumpy lately and it doesn't currently fit into any of the model's big macro trend categories, which holds its overall score to a moderate level.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- Exceptional profitability: a 26.2% net margin, 33.4% operating margin, and 32.4% return on equity in FY2025 signal a highly efficient, competitively advantaged business.
- Consistent dividend growth from $2.08 per share in FY2022 to $3.28 in FY2025, paired with a low 21.0% payout ratio, suggests significant capacity for continued dividend increases.
- Revenue and earnings growth remained positive in FY2025, with revenue up 6.4%, net income up 7.0%, and diluted EPS up 9.8%, demonstrating durable business momentum.
Bear Case
- Quarterly results have been uneven, with revenue, operating income, and net income all dipping notably in 2025Q4 before only partially recovering in 2026Q1, raising questions about consistency.
- The company is not assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes, meaning no thematic tailwind contributes to the model score and the stock may lack a near-term narrative catalyst.
- Growth rates in the mid-single to low-double digits, while positive, did not meet the model's threshold for top-tier growth, limiting upside to the composite score.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A sustained reacceleration in quarterly revenue and operating income beyond the 2026Q1 recovery level would signal that the 2025Q4 dip was transitory rather than structural.
- Assignment to one or more of the model's 24 tracked macro themes could add meaningful thematic tailwind to the score and broaden investor interest.
Bearish Triggers
- A deterioration in net margin or return on equity from their FY2025 levels of 26.2% and 32.4% would undermine the profitability pillar that currently anchors the investment case.
- A slowdown or reversal in the multi-year dividend growth trend, or a significant rise in the payout ratio above the current 21.0%, could signal financial stress and reduce income appeal.
Risk Profile
Medium RiskThe company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.68 in FY2025 against $300 billion in total assets, reflecting the leverage typical of a large financial services firm, which warrants monitoring. Quarterly operating results have also been volatile, with operating income swinging from $3,825 million in 2025Q3 down to $3,090 million in 2025Q4 before recovering to $3,778 million in 2026Q1, indicating some sensitivity to seasonal or cyclical factors.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.