BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc.
Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Dividend Income profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The composite score of 63.5/100 reflects a balance between near-maximum profitability and a strong dividend score on one side, and mid-range growth and momentum scores on the other, with no thematic contribution [profitability.operating_margin_pct, dividend.dps_trend, growth.net_income.yoy, theme.none].
- The 'Dividend Candidate' label is supported by consistent year-over-year dividend per share growth and a conservative 23.1% payout ratio that leaves room for future increases [dividend.dps_trend, dividend.payout_ratio].
- The Low risk rating is consistent with the company's strong profitability metrics and substantial asset base, even as near-term earnings momentum has softened [profitability.net_margin_pct, financial_health.total_assets, momentum.net_income_quarterly].
Why Not Higher
- Net income declined 8.1% and diluted EPS fell 4.1% in FY2025 despite strong revenue growth, and sequential quarterly results have decelerated sharply from the 2025Q3 peak, both of which constrained the growth and momentum factor scores [growth.net_income.yoy, growth.eps_diluted.yoy, momentum.revenue_quarterly].
- The absence of any macro theme assignment means Booking Holdings received no thematic score contribution, leaving 20 potential points entirely unclaimed [theme.none].
Data Confidence
10 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Revenue grew from FY2024's $23,739,000,000 to FY2025's $26,917,000,000, a gain of +13.4%, but net income declined -8.1% over the same period (FY2024: $5,882,000,000 to FY2025: $5,404,000,000), and diluted EPS fell -4.1% from FY2024's $172.69 to FY2025's $165.57.
The model appears to have rewarded the solid top-line expansion while penalizing the contraction in bottom-line profitability and per-share earnings, producing a mid-range score that reflects this mixed growth profile.
In FY2025, Booking Holdings posted an operating margin of 32.8%, a net margin of 20.1%, and a return on assets of 18.5%.
These metrics indicate highly efficient conversion of revenue to operating and net income alongside strong asset utilization, which the model rewarded with a near-maximum profitability score.
Filing evidence currently available does not support a more specific explanation for this factor.
Over the last four reported quarters, revenue peaked at $9,008,000,000 in 2025Q3 before declining to $6,349,000,000 in 2025Q4 and further to $5,532,000,000 in 2026Q1; operating income followed the same arc from $3,483,000,000 in 2025Q3 down to $1,271,000,000 in 2026Q1, and net income similarly fell from $2,748,000,000 in 2025Q3 to $1,083,000,000 in 2026Q1.
The pronounced sequential deceleration across revenue, operating income, and net income after the 2025Q3 peak likely constrained the momentum score to a mid-range level, as the model appears to penalize declining near-term trends even when absolute levels remain substantial.
In FY2025, Booking Holdings paid dividends per share of $9.60, up from $8.75 in FY2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 23.1% of net income in FY2025.
The model appears to have rewarded the consistent year-over-year dividend growth and the conservative payout ratio, which signals capacity to sustain or grow the dividend, producing a strong but not maximum score.
Booking Holdings is not currently assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes in the model.
The absence of a theme assignment means the security did not qualify for any thematic score contribution under the model's current methodology; this is a neutral classification rather than a negative signal about the company's business.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
Booking Holdings delivered strong top-line growth of 13.4% in FY2025, reaching $26.9 billion in revenue, but bottom-line results were mixed as net income fell 8.1% and diluted EPS declined 4.1% [growth.revenue.yoy, growth.net_income.yoy, growth.eps_diluted.yoy]. The company's profitability profile remains exceptional, with a 32.8% operating margin, 20.1% net margin, and 18.5% return on assets in FY2025 [profitability.operating_margin_pct, profitability.net_margin_pct, profitability.roa_pct]. On the dividend front, per-share payments grew from $8.75 to $9.60 year-over-year, supported by a conservative 23.1% payout ratio that signals capacity for continued dividend growth [dividend.dps_trend, dividend.payout_ratio]. Near-term momentum has softened following a peak in 2025Q3, with revenue and operating income declining sequentially into 2026Q1, which tempers the overall composite score [momentum.revenue_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
Plain English
Booking Holdings is a highly profitable travel company that grew its sales strongly in 2025 and keeps raising its dividend, but its profits per share actually dipped and recent quarterly results have been slowing down after a big summer peak [growth.revenue.yoy, growth.net_income.yoy, dividend.dps_trend, momentum.revenue_quarterly].
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- Exceptional profitability: Booking Holdings converted revenue into operating income at a 32.8% margin and earned an 18.5% return on assets in FY2025, reflecting highly efficient operations [profitability.operating_margin_pct, profitability.roa_pct].
- Consistent dividend growth with room to expand: Dividends per share rose from $8.75 in FY2024 to $9.60 in FY2025, while the payout ratio of just 23.1% leaves substantial earnings retained for reinvestment or further dividend increases [dividend.dps_trend, dividend.payout_ratio].
- Solid top-line expansion: Revenue grew 13.4% year-over-year from $23.7 billion to $26.9 billion in FY2025, demonstrating continued demand for the company's travel booking services [growth.revenue.yoy].
Bear Case
- Earnings contraction despite revenue growth: Net income fell 8.1% and diluted EPS dropped 4.1% in FY2025, meaning shareholders received less earnings per share even as the business grew its top line [growth.net_income.yoy, growth.eps_diluted.yoy].
- Decelerating near-term momentum: Revenue dropped from a peak of $9.0 billion in 2025Q3 to $5.5 billion in 2026Q1, and operating income fell from $3.5 billion to $1.3 billion over the same period, signaling a pronounced sequential slowdown [momentum.revenue_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
- No thematic tailwind: Booking Holdings is not assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes, meaning it receives no additional score contribution from thematic momentum that could otherwise boost its ranking [theme.none].
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A reversal of the sequential earnings decline — with net income and operating income returning to growth in upcoming quarters — would signal that the 2025Q3 peak was a seasonal high rather than a structural turning point [momentum.net_income_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
- Further dividend increases beyond the $9.60 per share level, especially if accompanied by a rising payout ratio, would reinforce the dividend candidate thesis and attract income-focused investors [dividend.dps_trend, dividend.payout_ratio].
Bearish Triggers
- If the gap between revenue growth and net income growth widens further — with revenues rising while earnings per share continue to fall — it would suggest structural margin pressure that undermines the profitability story [growth.revenue.yoy, growth.net_income.yoy, growth.eps_diluted.yoy].
- A continuation of the post-2025Q3 sequential revenue and operating income declines into subsequent quarters would indicate that momentum headwinds are more persistent than seasonal, weakening the investment case [momentum.revenue_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
Risk Profile
Low RiskThe company holds total assets of $29.3 billion in FY2025 and carries a deeply negative debt-to-equity ratio of -3.36, which reflects an unusual balance sheet structure worth monitoring [financial_health.total_assets, financial_health.debt_to_equity]. Near-term momentum risk is present given the sharp sequential decline in revenue and operating income from the 2025Q3 peak through 2026Q1, though absolute profitability levels remain high [momentum.revenue_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.