CME
CME Group Inc.
Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Aggressive Growth profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- Profitability is a clear strength, with operating and net margins among the highest observable in any sector, supporting a solid profitability factor score.
- Growth and financial health scores are mid-range: earnings grew strongly but revenue growth was modest at 6.4%, and while interest coverage of 24.4x is robust, data gaps in other health metrics limited the financial health score.
- The dividend and theme factors weighed heavily on the composite, with the sharp dividend cut, near-total payout ratio, and absence of any macro theme assignment collectively dragging the total score to 51.7/100.
Why Not Higher
- The dividend factor was severely penalized by the drop from $10.40 to $5.00 per share and a 96.6% payout ratio, and the theme factor contributed zero points due to no current macro theme assignment.
- Despite strong margins, the ROE of 14.2% is relatively moderate given CME's large equity base, and top-line revenue growth of only 6.4% limited the growth score to the mid-range.
Data Confidence
9 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Revenue grew 6.4% from FY2024 to FY2025, while net income rose 15.5% over the same period and diluted EPS increased 15.4% from FY2024 to FY2025.
The model rewarded the double-digit earnings and EPS expansion, though the more modest top-line growth of 6.4% tempered the overall growth score, placing it in the mid-range.
In FY2025, CME reported an operating margin of 64.9%, a net margin of 62.5%, and a return on equity of 14.2%.
The model rewarded the exceptionally high operating and net margins, which reflect CME's capital-light exchange business model; the ROE of 14.2% in FY2025, while solid, is relatively moderate given the firm's large equity base, which likely kept the score from reaching the maximum.
CME's interest coverage ratio in FY2025 was 24.4, indicating operating income covered interest expense by a wide margin, and total assets in FY2025 stood at $198,424,200,000.
The model recognized the strong debt-servicing capacity implied by the 24.4x interest coverage in FY2025; however, data gaps in other health metrics limited the score to the mid-range.
Quarterly revenue moved from $1,692,000,000 in 2025Q2 to $1,537,600,000 in 2025Q3, then partially recovered to $1,648,700,000 in 2025Q4, before accelerating to $1,880,100,000 in 2026Q1. Operating income followed a similar pattern: $1,129,300,000 in 2025Q2, declining to $972,600,000 in 2025Q3 and $1,019,600,000 in 2025Q4, then surging to $1,309,700,000 in 2026Q1.
The model captured a dip-then-recovery trajectory across the four quarters, with the strong 2026Q1 rebound in both revenue and operating income providing positive recent momentum, though the mid-period weakness tempered the overall score.
Dividends per share declined sharply to $5.00 in FY2025 from $10.40 in FY2024, and the dividend payout ratio in FY2025 was 96.6% of net income.
The model penalized the steep year-over-year cut in dividends per share from FY2024 to FY2025, and the near-total payout of earnings at 96.6% in FY2025 leaves little retained earnings buffer, both of which weighed heavily on the dividend score.
CME is not currently assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes.
Because no macro theme assignment exists for this security at this time, the theme component contributed no score under the model's current methodology; this reflects the model's classification state and is not a commentary on the company's business relevance.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
CME Group demonstrates exceptional profitability with an operating margin of 64.9% and net margin of 62.5% in FY2025, underpinned by its capital-light exchange business model. Earnings growth was strong, with net income rising 15.5% and diluted EPS up 15.4% year-over-year, even as top-line revenue grew at a more modest 6.4%. However, the dividend picture deteriorated sharply, with dividends per share falling from $10.40 in FY2024 to $5.00 in FY2025 at a near-total payout ratio of 96.6%, and the company currently carries no macro theme assignment under the model. The composite score of 51.7/100 reflects a business with genuine operational strengths but meaningful concerns around dividend sustainability and thematic positioning.
Plain English
CME makes a lot of money on each dollar of revenue and grew its earnings strongly last year, but it cut its dividend in half while still paying out almost all of its profits to shareholders, which raises questions about how sustainable that dividend really is.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- Exceptional margins: CME posted a 64.9% operating margin and 62.5% net margin in FY2025, reflecting the highly efficient, capital-light nature of its exchange business.
- Strong earnings momentum: Net income grew 15.5% and diluted EPS rose 15.4% from FY2024 to FY2025, demonstrating robust bottom-line expansion well ahead of revenue growth.
- Recent quarterly acceleration: Revenue surged to $1,880,100,000 in 2026Q1 and operating income jumped to $1,309,700,000, representing a strong rebound after mid-period weakness in 2025Q3.
Bear Case
- Dividend cut and unsustainable payout: Dividends per share dropped sharply from $10.40 in FY2024 to $5.00 in FY2025, and the 96.6% payout ratio leaves virtually no retained earnings buffer.
- Modest top-line growth: Revenue grew only 6.4% from FY2024 to FY2025, tempering the otherwise strong earnings story and suggesting limited organic revenue acceleration.
- No macro theme alignment: CME is not currently assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes, meaning it receives no thematic tailwind credit under the model's current methodology.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A sustained multi-quarter trend of revenue and operating income growth above the 2026Q1 levels could signal that the recent acceleration is structural rather than episodic.
- Clarification or normalization of the dividend policy — such as a stabilized payout at a lower but sustainable ratio — could reduce concerns about capital return reliability.
Bearish Triggers
- A return to the mid-period weakness seen in 2025Q3, where revenue fell to $1,537,600,000 and operating income dropped to $972,600,000, would suggest the 2026Q1 rebound was temporary.
- Further deterioration in dividends per share beyond the already steep FY2025 cut, or a payout ratio remaining near 96.6%, would deepen concerns about earnings quality and shareholder returns.
Risk Profile
High RiskCME's interest coverage ratio of 24.4x in FY2025 indicates strong debt-servicing capacity, but the quarterly revenue and operating income trajectory showed a notable dip in 2025Q3 before recovering in 2026Q1, introducing some uncertainty about the consistency of near-term performance. The combination of mid-period operational volatility and a near-total dividend payout ratio of 96.6% leaving little retained earnings buffer contributes to the model's High risk rating.
Key Catalysts to Watch
The strong 2026Q1 rebound in both revenue to $1,880,100,000 and operating income to $1,309,700,000 could serve as a near-term positive catalyst if the acceleration proves durable in subsequent quarters.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.