CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Safe Long-Term Investing profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The composite score reflects a balance of strong profitability and financial health offset by weak momentum and the absence of dividends or a macro theme assignment [profitability.operating_margin_pct, financial_health.debt_to_equity, momentum.net_income_quarterly, dividend.none, theme.none].
- Solid annual-level metrics — including a debt-free balance sheet and above-average margins — anchor the score in the mid-range, while the persistent quarterly earnings deceleration and near-flat net income growth prevent a higher ranking [growth.net_income.yoy, momentum.net_income_quarterly, financial_health.debt_to_equity].
- The 'Research Further' label reflects that the company has genuine strengths worth investigating but also meaningful near-term concerns that warrant closer scrutiny before drawing conclusions [profitability.roa_pct, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
Why Not Higher
- The sustained sequential decline in both net income and operating income across the last four quarters — from $436M and $559M in 2025Q2 to $303M and $397M in 2026Q1 respectively — is a significant drag on the momentum score [momentum.net_income_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
- The combination of near-zero net income growth (+0.1%), no dividend payments, and no macro theme assignment leaves multiple scoring dimensions at or near their minimum, capping the overall composite score [growth.net_income.yoy, dividend.none, theme.none].
Data Confidence
7 / 10
High — most data fields present
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Revenue grew from FY2024 to FY2025 by +5.4%, reaching $11,925,601,000, while net income was nearly flat at +0.1% and diluted EPS rose only +2.7% over the same period.
The model reflects modest top-line expansion but penalizes the near-stagnant bottom-line growth; a +5.4% revenue gain paired with only +0.1% net income growth and +2.7% EPS growth signals that profitability did not keep pace with sales, limiting the growth score to the midpoint range.
In FY2025, Chipotle posted a net margin of 12.9%, an operating margin of 16.2%, and a return on assets of 17.1%, all reflecting solid earnings efficiency relative to revenue and assets.
The model rewards these above-average margin and return figures; a 16.2% operating margin and 17.1% ROA in FY2025 indicate that the business converts revenue and its asset base into profit at a high rate, supporting a near-top-tier profitability score.
In FY2025, Chipotle carried a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0, indicating no conventional financial debt on the balance sheet, supported by total assets of $8,994,531,000.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0 in FY2025 signals that the company operates without reliance on debt financing, which the model treats as a strong indicator of balance-sheet resilience, contributing to the high financial health score.
Over the last four reported quarters, revenue moved from $3,063,393,000 in 2025Q2 to $3,003,444,000 in 2025Q3, $2,983,511,000 in 2025Q4, and $3,088,242,000 in 2026Q1, while net income declined sequentially from $436,127,000 in 2025Q2 to $302,824,000 in 2026Q1, and operating income fell from $559,057,000 in 2025Q2 to $397,063,000 in 2026Q1.
The model penalizes the persistent sequential decline in both net income and operating income across these four quarters; even though revenue partially recovered in 2026Q1, the sustained earnings deceleration drives the momentum score well below the midpoint.
Chipotle does not currently pay a dividend; this is a genuine characteristic of the company, not a data limitation.
Because the model rewards income generation through dividends, a confirmed non-payer receives the minimum score on this factor, reflecting the absence of any shareholder cash distributions rather than any judgment about overall company quality.
Chipotle is not currently assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes in the model.
The absence of a theme assignment is a neutral classification outcome; it means the security does not map to a currently tracked macro theme, and the 0.0 score reflects that no theme-based score contribution was applied under the model's current methodology.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
Chipotle Mexican Grill delivered modest top-line growth of +5.4% in FY2025, reaching $11.9 billion in revenue, but bottom-line expansion was nearly flat at +0.1% net income growth, signaling that profitability did not keep pace with sales [growth.revenue.yoy, growth.net_income.yoy]. The company's profitability metrics remain strong, with a 16.2% operating margin, 12.9% net margin, and 17.1% return on assets in FY2025, and its balance sheet is exceptionally clean with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0 [profitability.operating_margin_pct, profitability.net_margin_pct, profitability.roa_pct, financial_health.debt_to_equity]. However, recent quarterly momentum is a concern, as net income declined sequentially from $436 million in 2025Q2 to $303 million in 2026Q1 and operating income fell from $559 million to $397 million over the same period [momentum.net_income_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly]. The absence of a dividend and no current macro theme assignment further limit the model's composite score [dividend.none, theme.none].
Plain English
Chipotle is a financially healthy, profitable company with no debt and solid margins, but its earnings have been shrinking quarter after quarter recently, and it doesn't pay dividends, which holds back its overall score [profitability.operating_margin_pct, financial_health.debt_to_equity, momentum.net_income_quarterly, dividend.none].
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- Chipotle's balance sheet is debt-free, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0 and total assets of nearly $9 billion in FY2025, reflecting exceptional financial resilience [financial_health.debt_to_equity, financial_health.total_assets].
- The company generates strong returns, posting a 16.2% operating margin, 12.9% net margin, and 17.1% return on assets in FY2025, indicating highly efficient conversion of revenue and assets into profit [profitability.operating_margin_pct, profitability.net_margin_pct, profitability.roa_pct].
- Revenue grew +5.4% year-over-year to $11.9 billion in FY2025, and quarterly revenue partially recovered to $3.09 billion in 2026Q1 after dipping in prior quarters, suggesting some top-line resilience [growth.revenue.yoy, momentum.revenue_quarterly].
Bear Case
- Net income was nearly flat in FY2025, growing only +0.1% despite a +5.4% revenue increase, indicating that cost pressures or other headwinds prevented profitability from keeping pace with sales [growth.net_income.yoy, growth.revenue.yoy].
- Sequential quarterly earnings have deteriorated persistently, with net income falling from $436 million in 2025Q2 to $303 million in 2026Q1 and operating income dropping from $559 million to $397 million over the same span [momentum.net_income_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
- Chipotle pays no dividend, meaning shareholders receive no current income from holding the stock, which reduces its appeal for income-oriented investors [dividend.none].
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A reversal in the sequential earnings decline — specifically, net income and operating income returning to or exceeding 2025Q2 levels in upcoming quarters — would signal that the profitability headwinds are resolving [momentum.net_income_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
- Acceleration in EPS growth beyond the current +2.7% year-over-year rate, particularly if driven by margin expansion rather than just revenue growth, would strengthen the investment case [growth.eps_diluted.yoy, profitability.net_margin_pct].
Bearish Triggers
- If the gap between revenue growth (+5.4%) and net income growth (+0.1%) widens further, it would suggest structural margin compression that could erode the company's otherwise strong profitability profile [growth.revenue.yoy, growth.net_income.yoy, profitability.net_margin_pct].
- Continued sequential declines in operating income beyond the already observed drop from $559 million to $397 million across four quarters would deepen concerns about near-term earnings trajectory [momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
Risk Profile
Very Low RiskChipotle's financial risk profile is very low, supported by a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0 and total assets of nearly $9 billion in FY2025, meaning the company carries no conventional debt burden [financial_health.debt_to_equity, financial_health.total_assets]. However, the persistent sequential decline in net income and operating income over the last four quarters introduces operational risk that investors should monitor closely [momentum.net_income_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.