CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Long-Term Growth profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The composite score of 51.1 is primarily supported by strong profitability (15.6/20) and financial health (16.0/20) sub-scores derived from the FY 2025 10-K, which reflect solid margins and a sound balance sheet.
- The momentum sub-score of 12.0/20 adds incremental support, indicating that sequential quarterly trends in earnings and revenue were positive during the filing period rather than deteriorating.
- The model maps 7 out of 10 core metrics from the EDGAR filing, meaning the score is built on a reasonably complete data picture, giving it a confidence rating of 7.0/10 and reducing the likelihood that the mid-range score is an artifact of missing data.
Why Not Higher
- The dividend sub-score of 0.0/20 and theme sub-score of 0.0/20 together represent 40 points of potential scoring capacity that CMG contributes nothing to, creating a structural ceiling on the composite score regardless of how well the operational metrics perform.
- The growth sub-score of 10.0/20 indicates that revenue, net income, and EPS growth rates in the FY 2025 filing did not reach the upper scoring tiers of the model, preventing the composite from being elevated further by strong top-line or earnings expansion.
Data Confidence
7 / 10
High — most data fields present
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a fast-casual restaurant chain operating thousands of locations primarily in the United States, with a growing international presence. The company is known for its customizable Mexican-inspired menu, emphasis on fresh ingredients, and a relatively streamlined operational model compared to traditional full-service dining. From its SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY 2025, the model assigned CMG a composite score of 51.1 out of 100, reflecting a business with genuinely strong fundamental characteristics in some areas but meaningful gaps in others. The profitability sub-score of 15.6/20 and financial health sub-score of 16.0/20 are clear standouts, indicating healthy operating and net margins alongside a manageable leverage profile and solid interest coverage as reported in the filing. The growth sub-score of 10.0/20, while not a failing mark, suggests that year-over-year revenue, net income, and EPS growth rates as captured in the FY 2025 filing did not reach the upper tiers of the model's growth criteria, which may reflect a maturing unit-economics curve or a period of moderated comparable-store sales expansion. The dividend sub-score of 0.0/20 is a structural drag on the composite score, as Chipotle does not distribute dividends to shareholders, eliminating all dividend-related scoring entirely. Similarly, the theme sub-score of 0.0/20 indicates that the filing-derived data did not map onto any of the macro thematic exposure categories tracked by the model. The key research tradeoff for CMG is between a genuinely high-quality operating business — well-margined, financially sound, and showing quarterly momentum — and a score ceiling imposed by the absence of dividend income and thematic tailwinds, making it best suited to long-term growth research profiles rather than income or thematic mandates.
Plain English
Chipotle is the company behind the popular burrito and bowl chain you see all over the US, and it is a legitimately well-run business with strong profit margins and a clean balance sheet. The model score of 51.1 out of 100 puts it in the middle of the pack, not because the business is struggling, but largely because it pays no dividends — which zeroes out a full scoring category — and does not score on any macro thematic exposures tracked by the model. The Medium risk rating reflects that while the core financials are solid, the restaurant industry is sensitive to consumer spending patterns and food cost inflation, and the growth trajectory as measured by the filing data did not register at the highest tier. For a researcher focused on long-term growth rather than income or thematic investing, CMG scores best at 55.6 under that specific profile.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- The financial health sub-score of 16.0/20 indicates a strong balance sheet with manageable leverage and robust interest coverage as reported in the FY 2025 10-K, suggesting the company is not financially stretched and retains operational flexibility.
- The profitability sub-score of 15.6/20 reflects above-average net margins, operating margins, and return on assets relative to the model's restaurant-sector benchmarks, pointing to disciplined cost management and pricing power in the filing period.
- The momentum sub-score of 12.0/20 signals that quarterly trends in revenue, earnings, and margins showed improvement over the course of the FY 2025 filing period, indicating the business was not decelerating on a sequential basis.
Bear Case
- The growth sub-score of only 10.0/20 suggests that year-over-year gains in revenue, net income, and EPS as reported in the FY 2025 10-K did not meet the higher thresholds of the model's growth criteria, raising questions about the pace of top-line and earnings expansion.
- The dividend sub-score of 0.0/20 is a structural zero that mathematically caps the composite score and will persist unless Chipotle introduces a dividend program, making this a perpetual drag for any model that weights income metrics.
- The theme sub-score of 0.0/20 indicates that the filing-derived data did not align with any macro thematic exposure categories in the model, meaning CMG does not benefit from scoring tailwinds tied to trends such as AI infrastructure, energy transition, or demographic shifts.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A material acceleration in year-over-year revenue and net income growth as reported in a subsequent annual filing would push the growth sub-score meaningfully higher and lift the composite score toward the upper range of the long-term growth profile.
- Sustained sequential improvement in operating and net margins over multiple quarters would strengthen the momentum and profitability sub-scores, reinforcing the bull case that Chipotle's unit economics are improving rather than plateauing.
Bearish Triggers
- A deterioration in operating margins or net margins in a future 10-K filing — driven by food cost inflation, labor cost increases, or declining comparable-restaurant sales — would compress the profitability sub-score and weaken the primary pillar supporting the current composite.
- Evidence of increasing leverage or weakening interest coverage in a subsequent balance sheet filing would erode the financial health sub-score of 16.0/20, which is currently one of the two strongest contributors to the model score.
Red Flags
- The growth sub-score of 10.0/20 is the lowest non-zero sub-score in the profile and, combined with the zero dividend and theme scores, suggests that nearly half of the model's scoring framework is either underperforming or entirely inactive for this filing period.
Risk Profile
Medium RiskThe Medium risk rating for CMG reflects that while the company's balance sheet and profitability metrics are solid as reported in the FY 2025 10-K, the restaurant sector is inherently exposed to cyclical consumer spending behavior, food and labor cost volatility, and competitive pressure from adjacent fast-casual concepts, all of which could pressure margins in a less favorable operating environment.
Key Catalysts to Watch
The key factors to monitor for CMG include whether comparable-restaurant sales trends and new unit openings as disclosed in future SEC filings drive a reacceleration in the growth sub-score, and whether management's operational efficiency initiatives translate into further margin expansion that could elevate both the profitability and momentum sub-scores in the next annual filing.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.