COP
ConocoPhillips
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Dividend Income profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- Financial health is the strongest contributor, with a near-perfect score driven by a 0.35 debt-to-equity ratio and 14.8x interest coverage on a $121.9 billion asset base.
- The dividend factor also scores highly, reflecting four consecutive years of per-share dividend growth and a sustainable 50% payout ratio in FY2025.
- Growth and momentum scores are below average, dragged down by a 13.6% net income decline, an 18.7% EPS drop, and volatile quarterly results including a sharp 2025Q4 trough, which together pull the composite score to the mid-range.
Why Not Higher
- The meaningful contraction in net income and diluted EPS in FY2025, combined with low momentum scores from the 2025Q4 quarterly trough, significantly limit the composite score despite strong balance sheet and dividend metrics.
- The Energy Security theme assignment contributed zero score points under the current model methodology, removing a potential source of additional upside in the composite total.
Data Confidence
10 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Revenue grew from FY2024's $49,418,000,000 to FY2025's $51,824,000,000 (+4.9%), but net income fell from FY2024's $9,245,000,000 to FY2025's $7,988,000,000 (-13.6%), and diluted EPS declined from FY2024's $7.81 to FY2025's $6.35 (-18.7%).
The model rewarded modest top-line expansion but penalized the meaningful contraction in bottom-line profitability and per-share earnings, resulting in a below-average growth score.
In FY2025, ConocoPhillips posted an operating margin of 24.4%, a net margin of 15.4%, and a return on assets of 6.6%.
These figures reflect solid margin discipline and asset productivity, which the model rewarded with a high profitability sub-score, though there remains room relative to a perfect score.
In FY2025, ConocoPhillips carried a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35 and an interest coverage ratio of 14.8, against a total asset base of $121,939,000,000.
Low leverage and very strong interest coverage signal a highly resilient balance sheet, which the model rewarded with a near-perfect financial health score.
Over the last four quarters, revenue moved from $12,621,000,000 in 2025Q2 to $13,337,000,000 in 2025Q3, then dropped to $11,387,000,000 in 2025Q4 before rebounding to $13,500,000,000 in 2026Q1; net income similarly fell from $1,971,000,000 in 2025Q2 to $1,442,000,000 in 2025Q4 before recovering to $2,183,000,000 in 2026Q1; operating income followed the same pattern, declining from $3,017,000,000 in 2025Q2 to $2,245,000,000 in 2025Q4 and then rising to $3,363,000,000 in 2026Q1.
The mid-period trough in 2025Q4 across all three metrics introduced volatility that the model interpreted as weak or inconsistent momentum, driving the low sub-score despite the 2026Q1 recovery.
Dividends per share have risen consistently from $1.89 in FY2022 to $2.11 in FY2023, $2.52 in FY2024, and $3.18 in FY2025, with a dividend payout ratio of 50.0% in FY2025.
The model rewarded the unbroken multi-year growth in per-share dividends and a balanced payout ratio that suggests both shareholder commitment and retained earnings capacity, yielding a high dividend score.
ConocoPhillips is assigned to the Energy Security macro theme.
Although the company carries the Energy Security theme assignment, this designation did not translate into score points under the model's current methodology.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
ConocoPhillips delivered modest top-line growth of 4.9% in FY2025, with revenue rising to $51.8 billion, but bottom-line results weakened as net income fell 13.6% and diluted EPS dropped 18.7% year-over-year. The company's balance sheet remains a standout strength, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.35 and an interest coverage ratio of 14.8, underpinning a near-perfect financial health score. Dividend growth has been consistent and compelling, with dividends per share rising from $1.89 in FY2022 to $3.18 in FY2025 at a balanced 50% payout ratio. Quarterly momentum showed a mid-period trough in 2025Q4 before recovering in 2026Q1, introducing volatility that tempers the overall investment picture.
Plain English
ConocoPhillips is a large oil and gas company with a rock-solid balance sheet and a dividend that keeps growing every year, but its profits dipped recently and its quarterly results were bumpy, which is why it scores in the middle of the pack and warrants further research before acting.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- Exceptional balance sheet resilience: a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35 and interest coverage of 14.8x in FY2025 mean the company can comfortably service its obligations even in a challenging commodity environment.
- Consistent and growing dividend: dividends per share have risen every year from $1.89 in FY2022 to $3.18 in FY2025, with a 50% payout ratio that leaves room for both shareholder returns and reinvestment.
- Solid profitability margins: a 24.4% operating margin and 15.4% net margin in FY2025 reflect disciplined cost management and strong asset productivity, with return on assets of 6.6%.
Bear Case
- Earnings contraction is a concern: despite revenue growth of 4.9%, net income fell 13.6% and diluted EPS dropped 18.7% in FY2025, signaling that top-line gains are not translating to bottom-line improvement.
- Quarterly momentum was volatile: revenue, net income, and operating income all troughed sharply in 2025Q4 before recovering in 2026Q1, suggesting inconsistent near-term performance that may unsettle investors.
- The Energy Security macro theme assignment did not contribute score points under the current model methodology, limiting any thematic tailwind benefit in the composite score.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- If the 2026Q1 recovery in net income ($2.18 billion) and operating income ($3.36 billion) proves durable and quarterly results stabilize at or above those levels, the momentum drag on the composite score could reverse meaningfully.
- Continued dividend per share growth beyond the $3.18 FY2025 level, while maintaining a balanced payout ratio, would further reinforce the income investment thesis.
Bearish Triggers
- A renewed decline in net income or operating income below the 2025Q4 trough levels would confirm that the earnings contraction trend is structural rather than temporary, weakening the profitability case.
- If the debt-to-equity ratio or interest coverage ratio deteriorates materially from their current strong levels, the financial health pillar that anchors the bull case would erode.
Risk Profile
Low RiskConocoPhillips carries a Low risk rating, supported by a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35 and an interest coverage ratio of 14.8x in FY2025, which indicate the company is well-positioned to weather financial stress. However, the volatile quarterly momentum pattern — with revenue and earnings troughing in 2025Q4 before recovering in 2026Q1 — introduces some near-term operational uncertainty.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.