CSX
CSX Corporation
Industrials · Railroads · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Safe Long-Term Investing profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The profitability factor is the strongest contributor, anchored by a 32.1% operating margin and 20.5% net margin that reflect genuine operational efficiency in the railroad sector.
- The growth factor is the primary drag, as declines in revenue, net income, and diluted EPS across FY2025 all pulled the composite score lower.
- The absence of a thematic assignment means CSX receives no additional tailwind credit, capping the total score at a mid-range level despite its profitability strengths.
Why Not Higher
- Broad-based contraction in revenue (-3.1%), net income (-16.7%), and diluted EPS (-14.0%) in FY2025 resulted in a low growth sub-score that significantly limits the overall composite.
- Drifting quarterly revenue and the lack of any macro theme assignment prevent the momentum and theme factors from contributing meaningfully to a higher total score.
Data Confidence
10 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Revenue declined from $14,540,000,000 in FY2024 to $14,092,000,000 in FY2025, a drop of 3.1%. Net income fell from $3,470,000,000 in FY2024 to $2,889,000,000 in FY2025, a decline of 16.7%, while diluted EPS dropped from $1.79 in FY2024 to $1.54 in FY2025, a decrease of 14.0%.
The model penalized CSX for broad-based contraction across revenue, net income, and earnings per share in FY2025, resulting in a low growth sub-score that reflects deterioration on all three key top- and bottom-line metrics year over year.
In FY2025, CSX posted an operating margin of 32.1%, a net margin of 20.5%, and a return on assets of 6.6%.
The model rewarded these figures as indicative of a highly efficient railroad operation, with a particularly strong operating margin and a net margin well above typical industrial benchmarks, supporting a near-top profitability sub-score.
In FY2025, CSX carried a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.38 against total assets of $43,682,000,000.
The model reflects a moderately leveraged balance sheet; a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.38 in FY2025 indicates meaningful but not extreme leverage, which is common in capital-intensive rail infrastructure, and the large asset base provides a degree of structural stability.
Over the last four reported quarters, revenue moved from $3,574,000,000 in 2025Q2 to $3,587,000,000 in 2025Q3, then declined to $3,508,000,000 in 2025Q4 and further to $3,482,000,000 in 2026Q1. Net income followed a similar pattern, falling from $829,000,000 in 2025Q2 to $694,000,000 in 2025Q3, recovering to $720,000,000 in 2025Q4, and rising to $807,000,000 in 2026Q1. Operating income likewise dipped from $1,283,000,000 in 2025Q2 to $1,087,000,000 in 2025Q3, then partially recovered to $1,110,000,000 in 2025Q4 and $1,253,000,000 in 2026Q1.
The model captured a mixed trend: revenue has drifted lower over the four-quarter window while net income and operating income showed a mid-period trough followed by partial recovery, producing a middling momentum score that reflects neither clear acceleration nor severe deterioration.
CSX had a dividend payout ratio of 33.6% in FY2025, measured as dividends paid relative to net income.
A payout ratio of 33.6% in FY2025 indicates that CSX returns a moderate share of earnings to shareholders via dividends while retaining the majority for reinvestment; the model's mid-range score likely reflects the presence of a dividend but the absence of additional yield or growth data needed to score higher.
CSX is not currently assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes in the model.
The absence of a theme assignment means the security did not qualify for any thematic tailwind credit under the current methodology; this is a neutral characteristic of the model's current coverage rather than a reflection of the company's business quality.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
CSX Corporation presents a mixed investment profile with a total model score of 46.1/100 and a Medium risk rating. The company demonstrates exceptional profitability, with a 32.1% operating margin and 20.5% net margin in FY2025, but these strengths are offset by meaningful top- and bottom-line contraction, as revenue fell 3.1% and net income dropped 16.7% year over year. The balance sheet carries moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.38 against a large asset base of $43.7 billion, and quarterly momentum shows a drifting revenue trend with only partial recovery in earnings. The absence of any thematic tailwind credit further limits the composite score.
Plain English
CSX is a railroad company that makes solid profits on every dollar of revenue, but it earned less money overall in 2025 than in 2024, and recent quarterly sales have been slowly declining, which is why the model says to research further before deciding anything.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- CSX operates with a best-in-class operating margin of 32.1% and a net margin of 20.5% in FY2025, reflecting a highly efficient railroad business that converts a large share of revenue into profit.
- The company's $43.7 billion asset base and moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.38 provide structural stability typical of capital-intensive rail infrastructure, suggesting the balance sheet can support ongoing operations.
- A dividend payout ratio of 33.6% in FY2025 indicates CSX returns a meaningful portion of earnings to shareholders while retaining the majority for reinvestment, reflecting financial discipline.
Bear Case
- Revenue declined 3.1% from FY2024 to FY2025, and net income fell a steeper 16.7%, signaling broad-based deterioration across both the top and bottom lines.
- Quarterly revenue has drifted lower over the last four reported periods, from $3,574 million in 2025Q2 to $3,482 million in 2026Q1, indicating a persistent softening in demand rather than a one-time dip.
- CSX is not assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes, meaning it receives no thematic tailwind credit that could otherwise support a higher composite score.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A sustained reversal in quarterly revenue trends — moving from the current drift lower back toward consistent growth — would signal improving demand and could meaningfully lift the momentum and growth scores.
- A return to net income growth approaching FY2024 levels of $3.47 billion would demonstrate that the FY2025 earnings decline was temporary rather than structural.
Bearish Triggers
- Further acceleration in net income or operating margin compression beyond the already-observed 16.7% net income decline would raise concerns about the durability of CSX's profitability advantage.
- A meaningful increase in the debt-to-equity ratio above the current 1.38 level, without a corresponding expansion in the asset base or earnings, would heighten financial health concerns.
Risk Profile
Medium RiskCSX carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.38 in FY2025, representing moderate but meaningful leverage against a $43.7 billion asset base, which is manageable but warrants monitoring given the recent earnings decline. Quarterly momentum is mixed, with revenue trending lower over the past four quarters even as net income and operating income showed a partial recovery from a mid-period trough, leaving the near-term trajectory uncertain.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.