FDX
FedEx Corporation
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Dividend Income profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The composite score of 51.1/100 reflects a mixed profile: financial health and dividend factors scored above midpoint, while growth and profitability factors dragged the overall score down [financial_health.debt_to_equity, dividend.payout_ratio, growth.revenue.yoy, profitability.net_margin_pct].
- Momentum received a moderate score due to accelerating revenues but was tempered by the significant and only partially recovered drop in quarterly profitability [momentum.revenue_quarterly, momentum.net_income_quarterly].
- The absence of any macro theme assignment contributed zero thematic score, limiting the total composite despite solid financial health metrics [theme.none, financial_health.debt_to_equity].
Why Not Higher
- Near-flat revenue growth of +0.3% and a -5.5% decline in net income in FY2025 prevented a higher growth score, which is a significant component of the overall model [growth.revenue.yoy, growth.net_income.yoy].
- Thin margins — 4.7% net and 5.9% operating — combined with no macro theme assignment left meaningful score potential unrealized [profitability.net_margin_pct, profitability.operating_margin_pct, theme.none].
Data Confidence
10 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Revenue grew only +0.3% from FY2024 to FY2025 ($87,693,000,000 to $87,926,000,000), while net income declined -5.5% over the same period ($4,331,000,000 to $4,092,000,000) and diluted EPS fell -2.3% from FY2024 to FY2025 ($17.21 to $16.81).
The model penalized FedEx for near-flat top-line growth and contracting bottom-line results, reflecting a business that is not meaningfully expanding revenues or earnings on a year-over-year basis.
In FY2025, FedEx reported a net margin of 4.7%, an operating margin of 5.9%, and a return on assets of 4.7%.
These figures indicate modest profitability relative to the scale of the business; the model awarded a below-midpoint score reflecting that margins and asset returns, while positive, remain thin for a capital-intensive logistics company.
In FY2025, FedEx carried a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71 against total assets of $87,627,000,000.
A debt-to-equity ratio below 1.0 in FY2025 suggests a relatively balanced capital structure, which the model rewarded with an above-midpoint score; the large asset base further signals operational scale.
Quarterly revenue showed a clear upward trend from $22,220,000,000 in 2025Q4 to $22,244,000,000 in 2026Q1, $23,469,000,000 in 2026Q2, and $24,000,000,000 in 2026Q3. Net income and operating income, however, were notably lower in 2026Q1 ($824,000,000 and $1,186,000,000 respectively) compared to 2025Q4 ($1,648,000,000 and $1,793,000,000), with only partial recovery through 2026Q3 ($1,056,000,000 net income; $1,348,000,000 operating income).
The model recognized accelerating revenue momentum but tempered the score due to the significant drop and incomplete recovery in profitability metrics across the same quarters.
FedEx maintained a dividend payout ratio of 32.7% in FY2025, and dividends per share have been paid across multiple years: $3.00 in FY2022, $5.86 in FY2023, $3.78 in FY2024, and $5.52 in FY2025.
A payout ratio below 35% in FY2025 indicates dividends are well-covered by earnings, and the multi-year payment history demonstrates commitment to returning capital to shareholders, both of which the model rewarded with an above-midpoint score.
FedEx is not currently assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes in the model.
The absence of a theme assignment means the security did not qualify for any thematic score contribution under the current methodology; this is a neutral classification and does not reflect on the company's business quality.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
FedEx Corporation posted near-flat revenue growth of just +0.3% in FY2025, while net income declined -5.5% and diluted EPS fell -2.3%, reflecting a business struggling to expand earnings despite its massive scale [growth.revenue.yoy, growth.net_income.yoy, growth.eps_diluted.yoy]. Profitability remains thin, with a net margin of 4.7% and operating margin of 5.9%, though the balance sheet is relatively sound with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71 against a total asset base of $87.6 billion [profitability.net_margin_pct, profitability.operating_margin_pct, financial_health.debt_to_equity, financial_health.total_assets]. On the positive side, quarterly revenues have accelerated from $22.2 billion in 2025Q4 to $24.0 billion in 2026Q3, though profitability has not kept pace with that top-line recovery [momentum.revenue_quarterly, momentum.net_income_quarterly]. The dividend payout ratio of 32.7% and a multi-year history of dividend payments add a measure of income stability to an otherwise mixed fundamental picture [dividend.payout_ratio, dividend.dps_trend].
Plain English
FedEx is a giant shipping company that barely grew its sales last year and actually made less profit, but it has a manageable debt load, is paying a steady dividend, and its quarterly revenues have been picking up recently — though profits haven't fully followed [growth.revenue.yoy, growth.net_income.yoy, financial_health.debt_to_equity, dividend.payout_ratio, momentum.revenue_quarterly].
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarterly revenue has accelerated meaningfully, rising from $22.2 billion in 2025Q4 to $24.0 billion in 2026Q3, suggesting improving top-line demand momentum [momentum.revenue_quarterly].
- The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71 and a total asset base of $87.6 billion indicate a relatively balanced capital structure with significant operational scale, reducing near-term financial distress risk [financial_health.debt_to_equity, financial_health.total_assets].
- A dividend payout ratio of 32.7% and consistent multi-year dividend payments — including $5.52 per share in FY2025 — demonstrate a commitment to returning capital to shareholders while keeping dividends well-covered by earnings [dividend.payout_ratio, dividend.dps_trend].
Bear Case
- Revenue grew only +0.3% in FY2025 while net income fell -5.5% and diluted EPS dropped -2.3%, signaling that the business is not generating meaningful earnings growth despite its enormous revenue base [growth.revenue.yoy, growth.net_income.yoy, growth.eps_diluted.yoy].
- Net and operating margins of 4.7% and 5.9% respectively are thin for a capital-intensive logistics company, leaving little buffer if costs rise or volumes soften [profitability.net_margin_pct, profitability.operating_margin_pct].
- Despite accelerating quarterly revenues, net income dropped sharply from $1.65 billion in 2025Q4 to $824 million in 2026Q1 and had only partially recovered to $1.06 billion by 2026Q3, raising concerns about the durability of profitability [momentum.net_income_quarterly].
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A sustained recovery in quarterly net income and operating income back toward 2025Q4 levels — or beyond — would signal that the recent revenue acceleration is translating into genuine earnings improvement [momentum.net_income_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
- Meaningful expansion in net or operating margins above current levels of 4.7% and 5.9% would suggest improved cost discipline or pricing power in the business [profitability.net_margin_pct, profitability.operating_margin_pct].
Bearish Triggers
- A reversal in the recent quarterly revenue growth trend — particularly if revenues stall or decline from the $24.0 billion 2026Q3 level — would undermine the primary positive momentum signal [momentum.revenue_quarterly].
- Further deterioration in net income or a dividend payout ratio rising well above the current 32.7% could signal earnings pressure threatening the sustainability of shareholder returns [dividend.payout_ratio, growth.net_income.yoy].
Risk Profile
Low RiskFedEx carries a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71 against a large asset base of $87.6 billion, suggesting limited near-term balance sheet risk [financial_health.debt_to_equity, financial_health.total_assets]. However, the sharp drop in quarterly net income from $1.65 billion in 2025Q4 to $824 million in 2026Q1 and only partial recovery through 2026Q3 highlights ongoing earnings volatility as a key operational risk [momentum.net_income_quarterly].
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.