FDX
FedEx Corporation
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Dividend Income profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The composite score of 48.5/100 reflects the averaging effect of two strong sub-scores (financial health 14.0 and dividend 13.8) against two weak sub-scores (growth 7.5 and theme 0.0), producing a middle-of-range result.
- FedEx's dividend sub-score of 13.8/20 anchors the score above what a purely growth- or profitability-weighted company with similar metrics would achieve, given the model's equal weighting across six dimensions.
- The Low risk rating is consistent with the financial health sub-score of 14.0/20, which captures a balance sheet with leverage and interest coverage metrics that the model categorizes as relatively stable based on the FY2025 10-K data.
Why Not Higher
- A theme score of 0.0/20 is the single largest suppressant of the composite score — the model found no qualifying macro theme exposures in FedEx's 10-K, and this zero-score drags the six-dimension average down significantly.
- The growth sub-score of 7.5/20 indicates that year-over-year revenue, net income, and EPS growth rates from the FY2025 filing are weak by the model's standards, preventing the kind of broad-based high scoring that pushes companies above 60 or 70 on the composite.
Data Confidence
10 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
FedEx Corporation is one of the world's largest integrated freight and logistics providers, operating a global network of express delivery, ground shipping, freight, and supply chain services under brands including FedEx Express, FedEx Ground, and FedEx Freight. The company filed its FY2025 10-K with SEC EDGAR, and the scoring model assigned it a composite score of 48.5/100 — a mid-range result that reflects a company with genuine strengths in dividend discipline and financial structure, partially offset by subdued growth momentum and limited exposure to high-conviction macro themes. The key research tradeoff for FDX is that it scores most meaningfully as a dividend income research candidate (best profile score of 55.7), supported by a dividend sub-score of 13.8/20 and a financial health sub-score of 14.0/20, while its growth sub-score of 7.5/20 and a theme score of 0.0/20 suppress the overall composite — making it a more compelling candidate for income-oriented research frameworks than for aggressive growth mandates.
Plain English
FedEx is the massive shipping company that delivers packages and freight all over the world — think of the purple-and-orange trucks. The model gave it a score of 48.5 out of 100, which is middle-of-the-road: the company has solid financials and pays a consistent dividend, but it's not growing quickly enough or tied to enough exciting macro trends to score higher. The Low risk rating means the model sees a relatively stable balance sheet and earnings profile based on the SEC filings. It's the kind of research candidate that might interest someone looking for income and stability more than rapid growth.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- FedEx's dividend sub-score of 13.8/20 indicates strong free cash flow coverage of dividends, a meaningful DPS growth track record, and a disciplined FCF payout ratio — all derived directly from the FY2025 10-K filing.
- The financial health sub-score of 14.0/20 reflects a balance sheet that the model assessed as carrying manageable leverage and adequate interest coverage, suggesting resilience in an environment of sustained higher borrowing costs.
- The momentum sub-score of 9.4/20 indicates some measurable sequential improvement in revenue, earnings, or margins across FedEx's most recent quarterly periods as reported in the annual filing, which may signal early-stage operational stabilization.
Bear Case
- The growth sub-score of 7.5/20 is the weakest individual dimension in the model, signaling that year-over-year revenue, net income, and EPS growth trends reported in the FY2025 10-K are materially below what the scoring model considers strong.
- A theme score of 0.0/20 means the model identified zero qualifying macro theme exposures for FedEx, which is a significant drag on the composite score and reduces its relevance as a thematic or sector-rotation research candidate.
- The profitability sub-score of 9.2/20 is only moderate, suggesting that net margins, operating margins, and return on assets derived from the FY2025 filing are not at levels that distinguish FedEx from peers on efficiency or earnings quality.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A meaningful improvement in the growth sub-score — driven by demonstrably accelerating revenue and net income growth in a future annual 10-K filing — would significantly raise the composite score and strengthen the research case across multiple goal profiles.
- If a future filing revealed qualifying macro theme exposures (for example, e-commerce infrastructure build-out, reshoring logistics, or AI-driven supply chain automation), the theme score could move from 0.0 toward 10–20, materially improving the composite.
Bearish Triggers
- Deterioration in the financial health sub-score — such as rising leverage ratios, weakening interest coverage, or balance sheet stress visible in a future 10-K — would undermine what is currently the strongest pillar of the FedEx research case.
- Any reduction in free cash flow coverage of dividends or a freeze or cut in DPS growth, as reflected in a future annual filing, would directly damage the dividend sub-score of 13.8/20 and remove the primary reason to consider FedEx as a dividend income research candidate.
Red Flags
- The growth sub-score of 7.5/20 combined with a theme score of 0.0/20 means FedEx scores in the bottom tier of the model on two of the six dimensions, which together represent a structural drag on the overall research case.
- The gap between the best-profile score (dividend income at 55.7) and the weakest-profile score (aggressive growth at 40.6) is notable, indicating the company's filing-derived fundamentals are poorly suited to growth-oriented research frameworks.
Risk Profile
Low RiskThe Low risk rating for FedEx is driven primarily by the financial health sub-score of 14.0/20, which the model interprets as reflecting manageable leverage and adequate interest coverage from the FY2025 10-K — characteristics associated with balance sheet stability rather than speculative financial positioning. This does not imply the absence of operational or industry risk, but rather that the filing-derived financial structure metrics place FedEx in the model's lower-risk tier.
Key Catalysts to Watch
The most significant catalysts to monitor in future FedEx annual filings are improvements in revenue and net income growth rates — which could lift the growth sub-score from its current 7.5/20 — and any emergence of macro theme exposures that the model could credit toward the currently zero-scored theme dimension. Sustained or improving free cash flow coverage of dividends will also be critical to maintaining the 13.8/20 dividend sub-score that anchors the current research case.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.