ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Dividend Income profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- ICE earns its 68.3/100 score primarily on the strength of its dividend sub-score (17.5/20) and profitability sub-score (16.4/20), which together reflect the filing's evidence of durable free cash flow generation, consistent dividend growth, and high operating margins characteristic of exchange and data infrastructure businesses.
- The financial health sub-score of 16.0/20 contributes meaningfully to the overall score, recognizing that ICE's balance sheet, while carrying acquisition debt, still demonstrates sufficient interest coverage and asset scale to support an investment-grade financial profile per the 10-K data.
- The model scores ICE as a Research Candidate rather than a top-tier pick because the growth (12.5) and momentum (13.4) sub-scores pull the composite down, and the complete absence of theme exposure (0.0/20) means the model assigns no additional credit for macro tailwinds, capping the total at 68.3.
Why Not Higher
- The theme sub-score of 0.0/20 is a significant ceiling on the total model score — had ICE's filing data mapped to even two or three macro themes, the composite score could have moved materially higher, but no qualifying theme exposures were identified in the regulatory filing.
- The growth sub-score of 12.5/20 reflects that revenue, net income, and EPS growth rates reported in the FY2025 10-K do not meet the threshold for a high-growth designation, preventing ICE from scoring competitively against faster-growing financial data and exchange peers.
Data Confidence
10 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) is a leading operator of global exchanges, clearinghouses, and data services businesses, best known for owning the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and running a broad portfolio of futures and derivatives markets spanning energy, financial, and commodity assets. The company also operates a substantial mortgage technology segment following its acquisition of Black Knight. ICE's model score of 68.3/100 reflects a business with genuinely strong dividend and profitability characteristics — the dividend sub-score of 17.5/20 and profitability sub-score of 16.4/20 are standout performers, anchored in the filing data showing consistent free cash flow generation, dividend per share growth, and healthy operating margins across its diversified exchange and data businesses. The financial health sub-score of 16.0/20 also signals a reasonably well-capitalized balance sheet with adequate interest coverage, though the scale of leverage introduced by major acquisitions is a factor that moderates that score. The key research tradeoff is that ICE scores best under a dividend income lens (76.3 profile score) but trails under an aggressive growth lens (62.0 profile score). The growth sub-score of 12.5/20 and the momentum sub-score of 13.4/20 suggest that while the business is profitable and cash-generative, recent quarterly improvement in revenue, earnings, and margins has been measured rather than accelerating. The theme sub-score of 0.0/20 reflects no identifiable macro theme exposures mapped from the filing, which limits the model's ability to assign additional upside based on secular tailwinds. Overall, ICE presents as a mature, infrastructure-like financial services business with strong income characteristics but modest near-term growth momentum as reflected in the filing data.
Plain English
Intercontinental Exchange owns the New York Stock Exchange and runs massive global trading platforms for energy futures, financial derivatives, and mortgage technology — it's essentially the infrastructure that keeps large parts of global finance moving. A model score of 68.3 out of 100 means the research model sees it as a solid, well-established business with strong cash flows and a reliable dividend track record, but not one that's showing explosive growth right now. The Medium risk rating reflects a business with real leverage on its balance sheet from acquisitions, even though the core franchise is highly durable. For a researcher focused on dividend income rather than aggressive growth, the filing data paints a more favorable picture.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- The dividend sub-score of 17.5/20 — the highest individual sub-score in the model — reflects strong FCF payout coverage, a consistent dividend per share streak, and meaningful DPS growth CAGR as reported in the FY2025 10-K filing, making ICE a compelling research candidate for income-focused profiles.
- The profitability sub-score of 16.4/20 signals above-average net and operating margins alongside solid return on assets, consistent with ICE's high-margin exchange and data services business model where incremental volume flows with low marginal cost.
- The financial health sub-score of 16.0/20 indicates that despite significant acquisition-related debt, ICE maintains adequate interest coverage ratios and balance sheet scale that the model views as manageable relative to its earnings capacity.
Bear Case
- The growth sub-score of 12.5/20 is the weakest fundamental sub-score and suggests that year-over-year revenue, net income, and EPS growth rates from the filing do not indicate a high-growth trajectory, which limits the appeal for researchers prioritizing capital appreciation.
- The momentum sub-score of 13.4/20 reflects only moderate sequential improvement in revenue, earnings, and margins across recent quarters in the filing data, suggesting the business has not yet demonstrated a clear re-acceleration following its large acquisition activity.
- The theme sub-score of 0.0/20 means the model identified no mapped macro theme exposures for ICE from its filing data, which removes a potential source of score uplift that peers operating in AI infrastructure, renewable energy, or other high-conviction thematic areas might benefit from.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- Evidence in future filings of sustained acceleration in year-over-year revenue and EPS growth — particularly from the mortgage technology segment reaching scale post-Black Knight integration — would directly improve the growth sub-score and push the composite model score higher.
- A demonstrated reduction in acquisition-related leverage through debt repayment, as shown in subsequent 10-K balance sheet and interest coverage data, would strengthen the financial health sub-score and reduce the Medium risk rating pressure.
Bearish Triggers
- A deterioration in free cash flow coverage of dividends — as would appear in a future filing showing FCF payout ratios climbing toward or above 100% — would directly erode the dividend sub-score of 17.5/20, which is currently the primary pillar supporting ICE's model score.
- Sequential declines in operating margins or net margins across multiple quarters, as captured in future momentum sub-score calculations from regulatory filings, would signal that integration costs or competitive pressures are compressing the profitability profile that currently scores 16.4/20.
Red Flags
- The combination of a moderate growth sub-score (12.5/20) and moderate momentum sub-score (13.4/20) alongside significant acquisition-related leverage — visible in the financial health sub-score not reaching the top tier — suggests the integration of major acquisitions like Black Knight may still be creating near-term earnings and cash flow headwinds as reflected in the filing data.
Risk Profile
Medium RiskThe Medium risk rating for ICE reflects a business with a highly durable core exchange franchise but meaningful balance sheet leverage from its acquisition strategy, where the interest coverage and leverage ratios in the 10-K filing are adequate but not exceptional, creating sensitivity to any sustained decline in operating earnings. For a financial infrastructure company, competitive disruption risk is relatively low, but debt-servicing obligations in a prolonged revenue slowdown represent the primary risk factor the model is flagging.
Key Catalysts to Watch
The key filing-observable catalyst to watch is evidence of the mortgage technology segment's margin and revenue contribution reaching scale, as this would most directly address the subdued growth and momentum sub-scores that are limiting ICE's composite model score. Researchers should also monitor free cash flow trends and dividend per share growth disclosures in upcoming annual filings, as sustained FCF expansion would reinforce the already-strong dividend sub-score that underpins the income-focused research case.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.