KHC
The Kraft Heinz Company
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Dividend Income profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The overall model score of 25.9 is anchored by a profitability sub-score of 0.0, the lowest possible reading, which alone drags the composite significantly below average for any sector.
- A growth sub-score of 3.5 reflects that year-over-year revenue, net income, and EPS trends derived from the FY2025 10-K filing show minimal positive momentum, limiting the model's ability to assign upside credit.
- The dividend sub-score of 11.2 and financial health score of 10.0 are the only two sub-scores contributing meaningfully to the total, and together they are insufficient to offset the combined weight of zeros and near-zeros in profitability, theme, and growth dimensions.
Why Not Higher
- The profitability sub-score of 0.0 represents an absolute ceiling on the score — no amount of dividend or financial health performance can compensate for a business whose margin and return metrics sit at the model's floor, as profitability is foundational to nearly every goal profile.
- The theme sub-score of 0.0 means KHC is not mapped to any macro growth theme in the model, eliminating what could have been an additional 0–20 point contribution that many higher-ranked companies receive for exposure to areas like AI infrastructure, energy transition, or healthcare innovation.
Data Confidence
10 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
The Kraft Heinz Company is one of the world's largest food and beverage manufacturers, owning a portfolio of iconic brands including Kraft, Heinz, Oscar Mayer, Philadelphia, and Planters. The company operates primarily in the packaged foods segment within the Consumer Defensive sector, selling products across grocery, foodservice, and retail channels globally. Despite the strength and recognition of its brand portfolio, KHC's overall model score of 25.9/100 reflects deep structural challenges identified across SEC EDGAR filing data, with profitability and theme sub-scores both registering at 0.0, and growth coming in at a weak 3.5 out of 20. The scoring breakdown reveals a company that is carrying significant financial stress beneath its consumer-staple exterior. A profitability sub-score of 0.0 indicates that net margin, operating margin, and ROA metrics derived from the FY2025 10-K filing fall at or near the bottom of the model's range, suggesting that KHC's cost structure, restructuring charges, and impairment history are materially eroding bottom-line returns. A growth sub-score of 3.5 reflects minimal or negative momentum in revenue and earnings on a year-over-year basis. The financial health sub-score of 10.0 — the company's strongest dimension — reflects a balance sheet of significant size, though leverage and interest coverage metrics temper the overall reading. The dividend sub-score of 11.2 is the highest contributor, pointing to some FCF coverage of dividends, though this alone cannot offset the breadth of weakness elsewhere. The key research tradeoff for KHC centers on whether its dividend income characteristics — partially supported by free cash flow — can justify research attention given the near-total absence of profitability strength and growth traction. The model's best-fit profile is dividend income at 32.3, yet even that composite remains low in absolute terms, signaling that KHC is a research candidate requiring significant scrutiny rather than straightforward income positioning.
Plain English
Kraft Heinz makes household staples like ketchup, mac and cheese, and lunch meats — brands you've definitely seen at the grocery store. Despite how familiar the company feels, the model scored it just 25.9 out of 100 because its profitability and growth metrics from regulatory filings are very weak, meaning the business is struggling to convert sales into meaningful earnings. The High risk rating reflects that even in a traditionally 'safe' food sector, KHC's financial structure and earnings profile carry real uncertainty for researchers. The most interesting angle is its dividend characteristics, but even those don't score high enough to make this an easy research call.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- The dividend sub-score of 11.2 indicates that free cash flow provides some coverage of dividend payments, suggesting the payout is not entirely unsupported by operating results.
- The financial health sub-score of 10.0, the highest in the model breakdown, reflects the company's substantial balance sheet size, which provides a degree of operational durability typical of large-scale packaged food manufacturers.
- KHC's portfolio of globally recognized brands — including Heinz, Kraft, and Philadelphia — represents durable category positions in staple food segments that tend to be resilient across economic cycles, a qualitative factor consistent with its Consumer Defensive classification.
Bear Case
- A profitability sub-score of 0.0 is the most damaging single data point in the model, indicating that net margin, operating margin, and return on assets derived from the FY2025 10-K are at the floor of the model's range, reflecting a business failing to generate adequate earnings from its revenue base.
- The growth sub-score of 3.5 out of 20 signals near-stagnant or declining year-over-year performance across revenue, net income, and EPS as measured from EDGAR filings, leaving little evidence of fundamental business improvement.
- A theme sub-score of 0.0 indicates that KHC's business model has no identified exposure to macro growth themes tracked by the model, meaning the company is not positioned to benefit from emerging structural tailwinds that could re-rate its growth trajectory.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A meaningful improvement in operating margin and net margin in a subsequent 10-K filing — sufficient to lift the profitability sub-score above 5.0 — would signal that cost restructuring or pricing actions are beginning to flow through to the bottom line.
- Demonstrated year-over-year revenue growth combined with positive EPS trajectory in future EDGAR filings would improve the growth sub-score from 3.5, indicating that volume recovery or portfolio rationalization is gaining traction.
Bearish Triggers
- A further deterioration in free cash flow coverage of dividend payments, reflected in a declining dividend sub-score in future model runs, would raise questions about the sustainability of the payout — currently the company's strongest scoring dimension.
- Any increase in leverage ratios or decline in interest coverage identified in future 10-K filings would push the financial health sub-score below its current 10.0, removing the only other meaningful contributor to the total model score.
Red Flags
- A profitability sub-score of 0.0 indicates that earnings-related metrics from the FY2025 10-K — including net margin and ROA — are at or near the model's minimum threshold, which is a significant concern for a company in the Consumer Defensive sector where margins are expected to be stable.
- The combination of a low growth score (3.5) and zero profitability score suggests KHC may be experiencing simultaneous revenue pressure and margin compression, a pattern that warrants close examination of the underlying 10-K income statement data.
- The financial health sub-score of only 10.0 out of 20, despite the company's size, implies that leverage ratios and interest coverage metrics are not at comfortable levels, which is a material consideration given KHC's historically elevated debt load from its 2015 merger.
Risk Profile
High RiskThe High risk rating for KHC reflects the rare combination of zero profitability, near-zero growth, and elevated financial leverage within a sector — Consumer Defensive packaged foods — that researchers typically associate with stability, meaning the company's actual filing-derived metrics diverge sharply from sector expectations. For researchers focused on dividend income, the risk is compounded by uncertainty over whether deteriorating earnings can continue to support cash distributions over a multi-year horizon.
Key Catalysts to Watch
The key filing-derived catalyst to monitor is any improvement in operating margin and FCF generation in future 10-K disclosures, as these would be the primary drivers needed to lift KHC's profitability sub-score from its current floor of 0.0. Researchers should also watch for changes in the company's reported debt structure and interest coverage ratios, given that the financial health sub-score at 10.0 sits at the midpoint and could move in either direction depending on balance sheet management decisions disclosed in subsequent filings.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.