MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical · Lodging · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Dividend Income profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The dividend factor is a key contributor, rewarded for consistent multi-year dividend per share growth from $1.00 to $2.64 and a low 27.6% payout ratio that leaves room for future increases.
- Solid profitability metrics including a 15.8% operating margin and 9.4% return on assets support a favorable profitability score, anchoring the mid-range composite result.
- Growth and momentum scores are tempered by modest top-line expansion of 4.3% and a meaningful quarterly earnings dip in 2025Q4, preventing a higher overall score.
Why Not Higher
- The quarterly earnings pattern — a sharp drop to $445 million net income in 2025Q4 followed by only a partial recovery to $648 million in 2026Q1 — introduces inconsistency that limits the momentum contribution to the score.
- Marriott is not assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes, contributing zero to the theme component and capping the total composite score.
Data Confidence
10 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Revenue grew from FY2024's $25.1 billion to FY2025's $26.186 billion (+4.3%), while net income rose from FY2024's $2.375 billion to FY2025's $2.601 billion (+9.5%), and diluted EPS expanded from FY2024's $8.33 to FY2025's $9.51 (+14.2%).
The model rewarded accelerating earnings-per-share growth (+14.2% in FY2025) driven partly by share count reduction, but the more modest top-line expansion (+4.3% in FY2025) tempered the overall growth score to a mid-range result.
In FY2025, Marriott posted an operating margin of 15.8%, a net margin of 9.9%, and a return on assets of 9.4%.
The model rewarded these solid margin and return figures, reflecting efficient conversion of revenue to operating and net income; the score falls just below the top tier, consistent with the asset-light but highly leveraged nature of the business.
In FY2025, Marriott reported a debt-to-equity ratio of -3.98 and total assets of $27.54 billion.
A negative debt-to-equity ratio indicates negative book equity, a structural feature common in asset-light hospitality companies that return substantial capital to shareholders; the model appears to have interpreted the overall balance-sheet configuration favorably given the asset base, producing a high sub-score.
Over the last four reported quarters, revenue ranged from $6.489 billion (2025Q3) to $6.744 billion (2025Q2), with 2025Q4 at $6.690 billion and 2026Q1 at $6.654 billion; net income showed a notable dip to $445 million in 2025Q4 before partially recovering to $648 million in 2026Q1, and operating income similarly fell to $777 million in 2025Q4 before rebounding to $1.064 billion in 2026Q1.
The quarterly data reveal relatively stable revenue but a meaningful earnings trough in 2025Q4 followed by only a partial recovery, a pattern of inconsistency that the model likely penalized, yielding a mid-range momentum score.
Marriott's dividends per share have grown consistently from $1.00 in FY2022 to $1.96 in FY2023, $2.41 in FY2024, and $2.64 in FY2025, while maintaining a conservative payout ratio of 27.6% of net income in FY2025.
The model rewarded the multi-year upward dividend trend alongside a low payout ratio, which signals both commitment to returning capital and ample room for future dividend growth without straining earnings.
Marriott is not currently assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes in the model.
The absence of a theme assignment is a neutral classification reflecting the model's current coverage, not a commentary on the company's business quality or prospects.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
Marriott International delivered solid annual growth in FY2025, with revenue rising 4.3% to $26.186 billion and diluted EPS expanding 14.2% to $9.51, partly aided by share count reduction. Profitability metrics are healthy, with a 15.8% operating margin and 9.4% return on assets, consistent with its asset-light model. The dividend profile stands out, with dividends per share growing from $1.00 in FY2022 to $2.64 in FY2025 at a conservative 27.6% payout ratio, leaving ample room for continued growth. Quarterly momentum showed some softness, with a notable earnings dip in 2025Q4 that only partially recovered in 2026Q1, introducing a degree of near-term uncertainty.
Plain English
Marriott is growing its earnings and paying a rising dividend that still only uses about a quarter of its profits, but its quarterly earnings hit a rough patch recently that hasn't fully bounced back yet.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividends per share have more than doubled from $1.00 in FY2022 to $2.64 in FY2025, while the payout ratio remains a conservative 27.6%, signaling strong capacity for continued dividend growth.
- Diluted EPS grew 14.2% in FY2025 to $9.51, outpacing top-line revenue growth of 4.3%, reflecting efficient capital return through share count reduction and solid earnings conversion.
- Operating margin of 15.8% and return on assets of 9.4% in FY2025 demonstrate efficient operations within an asset-light business model.
Bear Case
- Net income dropped sharply to $445 million in 2025Q4 from $763 million in 2025Q2, and the partial recovery to $648 million in 2026Q1 suggests earnings volatility that may concern investors seeking consistency.
- Top-line revenue growth of just 4.3% in FY2025 is relatively modest, and quarterly revenues have been range-bound between $6.489 billion and $6.744 billion, indicating limited near-term acceleration.
- Marriott carries a negative book equity reflected in a debt-to-equity ratio of -3.98, a structural feature of its capital return strategy that nonetheless represents meaningful financial leverage.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A sustained recovery in quarterly net income well above the 2025Q4 trough of $445 million, moving consistently toward or beyond the $763 million level seen in 2025Q2, would signal restored earnings momentum.
- Acceleration in annual revenue growth beyond the current 4.3% rate, combined with continued EPS expansion, would strengthen the overall growth profile.
Bearish Triggers
- A reversal in the dividend growth trend or a meaningful increase in the payout ratio above the current 27.6% could signal earnings pressure and reduce the attractiveness of the dividend profile.
- Further deterioration in quarterly operating income below the 2025Q4 level of $777 million would suggest the earnings trough was not temporary and could weigh on the investment case.
Risk Profile
Low RiskMarriott's negative book equity (debt-to-equity of -3.98) reflects a highly leveraged balance sheet that, while common in asset-light hospitality, amplifies sensitivity to earnings swings. The notable quarterly net income trough of $445 million in 2025Q4 and only partial recovery to $648 million in 2026Q1 highlight that near-term earnings can be volatile despite relatively stable revenues.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.