MRNA
Moderna, Inc.
Healthcare · Biotechnology · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Speculative Opportunities profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The steep 39.9% annual revenue decline and deeply negative profitability metrics — net margin of -145.2% and operating margin of -158.1% — drove the low composite score of 23.8/100.
- The absence of a dividend and a zero score on the macro theme factor, despite Biotech & Genomics assignment, further weighed on the composite without offsetting positive signals.
- Mixed and deteriorating quarterly momentum, with operating losses worsening to -$1,388,000,000 in 2026Q1, limited the momentum contribution to a near-midpoint score.
Why Not Higher
- Profitability scored zero because all three key metrics — net margin, operating margin, and return on assets — are substantially negative, leaving no room for partial credit on that factor.
- The lack of any dividend and the failure of the Biotech & Genomics theme assignment to translate into a positive quantitative signal both scored zero, structurally limiting the composite score.
Data Confidence
6 / 10
Medium — some data gaps
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Revenue fell from $3,236,000,000 in FY2024 to $1,944,000,000 in FY2025, a decline of 39.9%. Partially offsetting this, net loss narrowed from -$3,561,000,000 in FY2024 to -$2,822,000,000 in FY2025 (+20.8%), and diluted EPS improved from -$9.28 in FY2024 to -$7.26 in FY2025 (+21.8%).
The model penalized the steep top-line contraction but awarded partial credit for the meaningful improvement in loss reduction and per-share earnings, resulting in a below-midpoint score.
In FY2025, Moderna posted a net margin of -145.2%, an operating margin of -158.1%, and a return on assets of -22.9%, all deeply negative.
The model assigns the lowest possible profitability score because all three key profitability metrics are substantially negative, indicating the company is generating significant losses relative to both its revenue and its asset base.
Filing evidence currently available does not support a more specific explanation for this factor.
Quarterly revenue rose from $142,000,000 in 2025Q2 to a peak of $1,016,000,000 in 2025Q3, then declined to $678,000,000 in 2025Q4 and further to $389,000,000 in 2026Q1. Operating losses followed a similarly volatile path: -$907,000,000 in 2025Q2, improving to -$260,000,000 in 2025Q3, then deteriorating to -$857,000,000 in 2025Q4 and deepening to -$1,388,000,000 in 2026Q1.
The model reflects a mixed momentum signal: a strong mid-period revenue and profitability improvement in 2025Q3 was not sustained, with both revenue and operating losses worsening sharply by 2026Q1, yielding a near-midpoint score.
Moderna does not currently pay a dividend; this is a genuine characteristic of the company, not a data limitation.
The model assigns a score of zero for this factor because there is no dividend income for investors to reward, which is typical for growth-stage biotech companies reinvesting capital into research and development.
Moderna is assigned to the Biotech & Genomics macro theme.
Although the company is assigned to the Biotech & Genomics theme, this assignment did not translate into a positive score under the model's current methodology, suggesting that theme assignment alone is insufficient without supporting quantitative signals.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
Moderna's composite score of 23.8/100 with a High risk rating reflects a company under significant financial strain: annual revenue fell 39.9% from FY2024 to FY2025, while net margin and operating margin stood at -145.2% and -158.1% respectively in FY2025. Although net loss narrowed by 20.8% and diluted EPS improved by 21.8% year-over-year, these improvements are modest against deeply negative profitability metrics. Quarterly momentum was volatile, with a revenue peak of $1,016,000,000 in 2025Q3 giving way to a sharp deterioration to $389,000,000 in 2026Q1 alongside an operating loss of -$1,388,000,000, underscoring the fragility of any near-term recovery.
Plain English
Moderna is losing a lot more money than it's making — revenue dropped nearly 40% in one year, and the company is still burning through cash with losses deepening into early 2026, making this a high-risk investment right now.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- Net loss narrowed by 20.8% and diluted EPS improved by 21.8% from FY2024 to FY2025, suggesting some progress in cost management even as revenue declined.
- Quarterly revenue surged to $1,016,000,000 in 2025Q3, demonstrating that the business retains the capacity for meaningful revenue generation in favorable periods.
- Total assets of $12,338,000,000 in FY2025 indicate Moderna maintains a substantial asset base that could support ongoing operations and research investment.
Bear Case
- Annual revenue collapsed 39.9% from FY2024 to FY2025, and quarterly revenue continued to fall sharply from $1,016,000,000 in 2025Q3 to $389,000,000 in 2026Q1, signaling sustained top-line weakness.
- Net margin of -145.2% and operating margin of -158.1% in FY2025 reflect deeply entrenched losses relative to revenue, with no path to profitability visible in the current data.
- The operating loss deepened to -$1,388,000,000 in 2026Q1, the worst quarterly figure in the trailing four quarters, indicating the financial situation is worsening rather than stabilizing.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A sustained multi-quarter recovery in revenue above the 2025Q3 peak of $1,016,000,000, combined with meaningful narrowing of operating losses, would signal a genuine inflection toward financial improvement.
- Consistent improvement in net margin and operating margin toward breakeven would challenge the current deeply negative profitability picture.
Bearish Triggers
- If revenue continues to decline below the 2026Q1 level of $389,000,000 and operating losses deepen further beyond -$1,388,000,000, the financial trajectory would become increasingly difficult to justify.
- Continued erosion of the $12,338,000,000 asset base without a corresponding path to revenue recovery would heighten concerns about long-term viability.
Risk Profile
High RiskModerna's High risk rating is supported by volatile and deteriorating quarterly results, with operating losses swinging from -$260,000,000 in 2025Q3 to -$1,388,000,000 in 2026Q1, and a return on assets of -22.9% in FY2025 indicating the company's substantial $12,338,000,000 asset base is not generating positive returns.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.