MS
Morgan Stanley
Financial Services · Capital Markets · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Dividend Income profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The composite score of 63.8/100 and a Low risk rating reflect a firm with strong earnings growth and consistent dividend increases, balanced against moderate profitability, elevated but contextualized leverage, and uneven quarterly momentum [growth.net_income.yoy, profitability.roe_pct, financial_health.debt_to_equity, momentum.net_income_quarterly, dividend.dps_trend].
- The Core Holding Candidate label reflects Morgan Stanley's combination of meaningful year-over-year earnings expansion and a multi-year dividend growth track record, which together support a stable, if not top-tier, composite ranking [growth.eps_diluted.yoy, dividend.dps_trend].
- The absence of a macro theme assignment means no thematic tailwind was applied, which is a structural drag on the composite score relative to peers that do carry theme assignments [theme.none].
Why Not Higher
- The momentum score is held back by the uneven quarter-to-quarter earnings path — specifically the dip in 2025Q4 — rather than a clean, sustained acceleration, which limits the model's confidence in near-term trajectory [momentum.net_income_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
- The absence of any macro theme assignment and a return on equity of 15.1% that, while solid, falls short of higher-ROE benchmarks the model may apply, both constrain the composite from reaching a higher tier [theme.none, profitability.roe_pct].
Data Confidence
9 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Net income rose from $13,390,000,000 in FY2024 to $16,861,000,000 in FY2025, a gain of 25.9%, while diluted EPS climbed from $7.95 in FY2024 to $10.21 in FY2025, a gain of 28.4%.
The model rewarded both the magnitude and consistency of these year-over-year gains; double-digit percentage growth in both net income and EPS signals robust earnings expansion, which the model weights heavily in the growth component.
Morgan Stanley generated a return on equity of 15.1% in FY2025.
A 15.1% ROE in FY2025 indicates the firm is generating meaningful returns for shareholders relative to book equity; the model's mid-range score reflects that this level of return, while solid for a large financial institution, leaves room relative to higher-ROE benchmarks the model may apply.
In FY2025, Morgan Stanley carried a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.06 and reported total assets of $1,420,270,000,000.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 3.06 in FY2025 is elevated by general-market standards but is characteristic of large, leveraged financial institutions; the model appears to have contextualized this leverage against the firm's substantial $1,420,270,000,000 asset base, yielding a moderate health score rather than a penalized one.
Net income over the last four quarters was $3,539,000,000 in 2025Q2, $4,610,000,000 in 2025Q3, $4,397,000,000 in 2025Q4, and $5,567,000,000 in 2026Q1; operating income followed a similar pattern at $4,622,000,000 in 2025Q2, $6,028,000,000 in 2025Q3, $5,760,000,000 in 2025Q4, and $7,011,000,000 in 2026Q1.
Both series show an overall upward trajectory from 2025Q2 through 2026Q1, though each experienced a dip in 2025Q4 before rebounding sharply in 2026Q1; the model's mid-range score likely reflects that the quarter-to-quarter path was uneven rather than a clean, uninterrupted acceleration.
Dividends per share have increased every year from $2.95 in FY2022 to $3.25 in FY2023, $3.55 in FY2024, and $3.85 in FY2025, while the dividend payout ratio stood at 39.1% of net income in FY2025.
The model rewarded the consistent, multi-year per-share dividend growth as a sign of shareholder-return commitment, and the 39.1% payout ratio in FY2025 suggests the dividend is well-covered by earnings, leaving capacity for further increases — factors that together support a above-midpoint dividend score.
Morgan Stanley is not currently assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes.
The absence of a theme assignment means the model did not apply any macro-theme tailwind to this security's score; this reflects the current classification state and should not be read as a negative signal about the company's business or prospects.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
Morgan Stanley delivered strong earnings growth in FY2025, with net income rising 25.9% to $16,861,000,000 and diluted EPS climbing 28.4% to $10.21, earning a high growth score [growth.net_income.yoy, growth.eps_diluted.yoy]. Profitability is solid with a 15.1% return on equity [profitability.roe_pct], and the firm's leverage, reflected in a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.06 against a $1,420,270,000,000 asset base, is characteristic of large financial institutions [financial_health.debt_to_equity, financial_health.total_assets]. Quarterly momentum shows an overall upward trend from 2025Q2 through 2026Q1, though with some unevenness, and dividends per share have grown consistently from $2.95 in FY2022 to $3.85 in FY2025 at a well-covered 39.1% payout ratio [momentum.net_income_quarterly, dividend.dps_trend, dividend.payout_ratio].
Plain English
Morgan Stanley is making significantly more money than it was a year ago — profits jumped nearly 26% and earnings per share rose over 28% — while steadily paying shareholders more in dividends each year, making it a stable, growing financial firm worth watching [growth.net_income.yoy, growth.eps_diluted.yoy, dividend.dps_trend].
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- Exceptional earnings growth: net income surged from $13,390,000,000 in FY2024 to $16,861,000,000 in FY2025 (+25.9%), with diluted EPS rising from $7.95 to $10.21 (+28.4%), signaling robust and broad-based earnings expansion [growth.net_income.yoy, growth.eps_diluted.yoy].
- Consistent dividend growth with room to run: dividends per share have increased every year from $2.95 in FY2022 to $3.85 in FY2025, and the 39.1% payout ratio in FY2025 indicates the dividend is well-covered by earnings, leaving capacity for further increases [dividend.dps_trend, dividend.payout_ratio].
- Strong quarterly rebound: net income reached $5,567,000,000 and operating income hit $7,011,000,000 in 2026Q1, representing sharp recoveries after a modest dip in 2025Q4 and pointing to continued earnings momentum [momentum.net_income_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
Bear Case
- Elevated leverage: a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.06 in FY2025, while typical for large financial institutions, remains high by general-market standards and introduces sensitivity to credit or liquidity stress [financial_health.debt_to_equity].
- Uneven quarterly momentum: both net income and operating income dipped in 2025Q4 before rebounding in 2026Q1, suggesting the earnings trajectory is not a clean, uninterrupted acceleration and may be subject to quarter-to-quarter volatility [momentum.net_income_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
- No macro theme tailwind: Morgan Stanley is not currently assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes, meaning the model applied no thematic tailwind to its composite score [theme.none].
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A sustained, uninterrupted acceleration in quarterly net income and operating income — eliminating the 2025Q4-style dips — would strengthen the momentum score and reinforce confidence in the earnings trajectory [momentum.net_income_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
- Assignment to one or more macro themes tracked by the model could add a meaningful tailwind to the composite score, reflecting alignment with broader economic trends [theme.none].
Bearish Triggers
- A meaningful deterioration in return on equity below the current 15.1% level would signal that the firm's ability to generate returns on shareholder capital is weakening, undermining the profitability case [profitability.roe_pct].
- A reversal in dividend growth or a significant increase in the payout ratio beyond the current 39.1% could signal earnings pressure or reduced financial flexibility [dividend.dps_trend, dividend.payout_ratio].
Red Flags
- ONE_TIME_REVIEW: 2022 OCF/NI ratio = -0.58 (OCF=-6,397,000,000, NI=11,029,000,000) — possible large one-time item
- ONE_TIME_REVIEW: 2023 OCF/NI ratio = -3.69 (OCF=-33,536,000,000, NI=9,087,000,000) — possible large one-time item
- ONE_TIME_REVIEW: 2024 OCF/NI ratio = 0.10 (OCF=1,362,000,000, NI=13,390,000,000) — possible large one-time item
- ONE_TIME_REVIEW: 2025 OCF/NI ratio = -1.06 (OCF=-17,889,000,000, NI=16,861,000,000) — possible large one-time item
Risk Profile
Low RiskMorgan Stanley's debt-to-equity ratio of 3.06 in FY2025 is elevated by general-market standards, though the model contextualized this against the firm's $1,420,270,000,000 asset base [financial_health.debt_to_equity, financial_health.total_assets]. Quarterly earnings showed a dip in 2025Q4 before rebounding sharply in 2026Q1, indicating some sensitivity to period-to-period variability even within an overall upward trend [momentum.net_income_quarterly, momentum.operating_income_quarterly].
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.