NKE
NIKE, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Safe Long-Term Investing profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The financial health sub-score of 16.0 — the highest individual sub-score in the model — anchors the overall score by reflecting NIKE's strong balance sheet, low relative leverage, and robust interest coverage as disclosed in the FY2026 10-K.
- The dividend sub-score of 7.5 provides additional positive contribution, supported by a demonstrated history of dividend-per-share growth and free cash flow that covers dividend distributions without apparent strain.
- The model's best-fit profile for NIKE is 'safe long-term investing' at 54.3, meaning the financial structure and dividend characteristics align more closely with that goal than with growth or speculative profiles, which is reflected in the overall score of 48.7.
Why Not Higher
- The growth sub-score of 7.5 and profitability sub-score of 11.6 collectively suppress the composite score significantly — both metrics reflect year-over-year declines in revenue, net income, EPS, and margins from the FY2026 10-K that prevent NIKE from scoring in the higher ranges of the model.
- The theme sub-score of 0.0 means NIKE receives no credit for macro theme exposure in the current model version, eliminating what could otherwise be a meaningful score contributor for a company of its global scale and brand reach.
Data Confidence
9 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
NIKE, Inc. is the world's largest designer, marketer, and distributor of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories, selling products under the NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands across more than 190 countries. The company operates through both wholesale partnerships with retailers and its own direct-to-consumer channels, including Nike.com and company-owned stores. The model scored NIKE 48.7/100 against its FY2026 10-K filing, reflecting a company with a structurally strong balance sheet and reliable dividend history, but one that is currently navigating meaningful operational headwinds that suppress its growth and profitability sub-scores. The financial health sub-score of 16.0 out of 20 is the standout contributor, signaling manageable leverage and solid interest coverage, while the dividend sub-score of 7.5 reflects consistent dividend-per-share history and FCF coverage, though not exceptional growth rates. Critically, the growth sub-score of 7.5 and profitability sub-score of 11.6 indicate that year-over-year revenue, net income, and margin performance are under pressure, consistent with NIKE's publicly reported strategic reset including inventory normalization and channel restructuring. The theme sub-score of 0.0 reflects no identifiable macro theme exposure mapped from the filing, which limits upside under thematic screening models. The key research tradeoff is a well-established global brand with durable financial structure facing a cyclical operational trough — the question for researchers is whether the current suppression of growth and profitability metrics is transitory or indicative of a more structural competitive challenge.
Plain English
NIKE makes the sneakers, sports clothes, and gear you see everywhere — it's the biggest athletic brand in the world. A score of 48.7 out of 100 means the model sees a company with a solid financial foundation but real concerns right now about slowing sales growth and shrinking profit margins. The Medium risk rating reflects that NIKE isn't in financial danger, but its near-term performance metrics from the filings show enough weakness that researchers should look closely before drawing conclusions. It's labeled 'Research Further,' meaning the data picture is mixed enough to warrant a deeper look rather than a straightforward positive or negative signal.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- The financial health sub-score of 16.0 out of 20 indicates that NIKE maintains a well-structured balance sheet with manageable leverage ratios and strong interest coverage, providing significant resilience even during periods of revenue softness.
- The dividend sub-score of 7.5 reflects a multi-year streak of dividend-per-share growth and meaningful free cash flow coverage of distributions, suggesting NIKE's capital return program remains supported by operating cash generation.
- NIKE's direct-to-consumer strategy, as evidenced in its 10-K disclosures, positions the company to capture higher-margin revenue over time as the channel mix shifts away from wholesale, which could improve the profitability sub-score in future filing periods.
Bear Case
- The growth sub-score of 7.5 out of 20 indicates material year-over-year deterioration in revenue, net income, and EPS as captured from the FY2026 10-K, suggesting the ongoing strategic reset has not yet translated into a recovery in top-line or bottom-line momentum.
- The profitability sub-score of 11.6 reflects compressed net and operating margins and weaker return on assets relative to NIKE's historical performance benchmarks, raising questions about how quickly profitability can be restored.
- The momentum sub-score of 9.8 out of 20 indicates that quarterly trends in revenue, earnings, and margins have not shown consistent sequential improvement within the filing period, which limits near-term confidence in a rapid operational turnaround.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A demonstrated sequential and year-over-year recovery in revenue growth and operating margin in the next annual 10-K filing would likely raise both the growth and profitability sub-scores, pushing the composite model score meaningfully above the current 48.7.
- Evidence in a future filing of accelerating direct-to-consumer revenue mix and improving free cash flow generation could strengthen both the profitability and dividend sub-scores, reinforcing the bull case for long-term researchers.
Bearish Triggers
- If the next 10-K filing shows continued contraction in net income, EPS, and operating margins with no sequential improvement in quarterly momentum, the momentum sub-score of 9.8 and growth sub-score of 7.5 could decline further, reducing the composite score below 48.7.
- A deterioration in NIKE's balance sheet metrics — such as increased leverage ratios or reduced interest coverage from debt-financed restructuring activity — would directly compress the financial health sub-score of 16.0, which is currently the primary support for the overall model score.
Red Flags
- The combination of a low growth sub-score (7.5) and a below-midpoint momentum sub-score (9.8) from the same FY2026 filing suggests that the revenue and earnings contraction is not yet stabilizing on a quarter-over-quarter basis, which may signal ongoing execution risk in the strategic reset.
- A theme sub-score of 0.0 indicates that NIKE's filing-derived business activities do not map to any of the tracked macro growth themes in the model, limiting its attractiveness under thematic or structural-growth screening frameworks.
Risk Profile
Medium RiskThe Medium risk rating for NIKE reflects a company with a structurally sound balance sheet and established cash generation, offset by near-term operational uncertainty evidenced by declining growth and profitability metrics in the FY2026 filing — the risk is not financial distress but rather the duration and depth of the current performance trough. Researchers should recognize that medium risk here is driven by execution and competitive uncertainty, not leverage or liquidity concerns.
Key Catalysts to Watch
The primary catalyst to watch is whether NIKE's strategic reset — including channel restructuring and direct-to-consumer expansion — begins to show measurable improvement in revenue growth rates and operating margins in subsequent SEC filings. A meaningful recovery in the growth and profitability sub-scores in the next annual 10-K would be the clearest filing-derived signal that the business inflection is underway.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.