NKE
NIKE, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Safe Long-Term Investing profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The composite score of 47.7/100 reflects a mixed picture: financial health is a clear strength with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53, but growth is nearly absent with revenue up only 0.2% and net income down 3.4% year-over-year.
- Momentum was weighed down by a declining quarterly revenue trend and volatile earnings, with a notable trough in 2026Q3, partially offset by a late recovery in 2026Q4.
- NIKE is not assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes, meaning no theme-based score contribution was available, which weighed on the composite alongside the subdued growth and dividend sustainability concerns.
Why Not Higher
- Near-flat revenue growth of just 0.2% and declining net income and EPS leave little evidence of meaningful growth momentum, which is a significant constraint on the overall score.
- The elevated dividend payout ratio of 77.4% combined with contracting earnings, and the absence of any macro theme assignment, prevented the score from reaching a higher range despite the solid balance sheet.
Data Confidence
9 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Revenue grew only marginally from FY2025 to FY2026, rising from $46,309,000,000 to $46,398,000,000 (+0.2%), while net income declined from $3,219,000,000 to $3,108,000,000 (-3.4%) and diluted EPS fell from $2.16 to $2.10 (-2.8%) over the same period.
The model penalized near-flat top-line growth and contracting bottom-line results; a sub-score of 7.5/20 reflects that revenue stagnation combined with declining earnings and per-share profitability leaves little evidence of meaningful growth momentum.
In FY2026, NIKE reported a net margin of 6.7%, an operating margin of 8.4%, and a return on assets of 8.1%, indicating moderate but not exceptional profitability across key metrics.
The model awarded a mid-range score reflecting that these margins demonstrate a functioning, profitable business, but the relatively modest net and operating margins suggest limited pricing power or cost efficiency compared to higher-scoring peers the model may benchmark against.
In FY2026, NIKE carried a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53 and held total assets of $38,410,000,000, suggesting a conservatively leveraged balance sheet relative to its asset base.
The model rewarded the low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53 in FY2026 as a sign of manageable financial obligations, and the large total asset base of $38,410,000,000 supports balance sheet scale, together driving a high sub-score of 16.0/20.
Quarterly revenue declined from $11,720,000,000 in 2026Q1 to $10,972,000,000 in 2026Q4, with a mid-year dip to $11,279,000,000 in 2026Q3. Operating income followed a similar pattern, falling from $922,000,000 in 2026Q1 to $650,000,000 in 2026Q3 before rebounding to $1,329,000,000 in 2026Q4, while net income dipped to $520,000,000 in 2026Q3 before recovering to $1,069,000,000 in 2026Q4.
The model captured a broadly decelerating revenue trend across the four quarters alongside volatile earnings, with a notable trough in 2026Q3; the late-quarter earnings rebound in 2026Q4 partially offset the negative momentum signal but was insufficient to lift the sub-score above 8.8/20.
NIKE's dividends per share have grown consistently from $1.325 in FY2023 to $1.45 in FY2024, $1.57 in FY2025, and $1.63 in FY2026, but the dividend payout ratio in FY2026 stood at 77.4%, indicating that a large share of net income is being returned to shareholders as dividends.
The model recognized the steady dividend growth trend as a positive signal, but the elevated payout ratio of 77.4% in FY2026 raises sustainability concerns when earnings are under pressure, which likely constrained the sub-score to 7.5/20.
NIKE is not currently assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes in the model.
The absence of a macro theme assignment means the model awarded no theme-based score; this is a neutral characteristic of the current classification and does not reflect on the company's underlying business quality.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
NIKE, Inc. earned a composite score of 47.7/100 with a Low risk rating and a 'Research Further' label, reflecting a business that is financially stable but facing meaningful headwinds in growth and earnings momentum. Revenue was essentially flat year-over-year, rising just 0.2% from FY2025 to FY2026, while net income declined 3.4% and diluted EPS fell 2.8% over the same period. The balance sheet remains a relative strength, with a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53 and a large total asset base of $38.4 billion, but profitability metrics are moderate and quarterly revenue trended downward across FY2026. The dividend has grown steadily but a payout ratio of 77.4% raises sustainability questions given the earnings pressure.
Plain English
NIKE is a big, financially stable company, but it's barely growing right now — revenue barely moved and profits actually shrank last year, and its quarterly sales have been drifting lower, which is why the model says 'look closer before deciding anything.'
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- NIKE's balance sheet is conservatively leveraged, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.53 in FY2026 and total assets of $38.4 billion, providing financial flexibility and resilience.
- Dividends per share have grown consistently every year from $1.325 in FY2023 to $1.63 in FY2026, demonstrating a multi-year commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
- Operating income rebounded sharply in 2026Q4 to $1,329,000,000 after a trough of $650,000,000 in 2026Q3, suggesting some potential for earnings recovery.
Bear Case
- Revenue growth was essentially nonexistent at just +0.2% year-over-year in FY2026, and net income declined 3.4%, signaling stagnation rather than expansion.
- Quarterly revenue declined from $11,720,000,000 in 2026Q1 to $10,972,000,000 in 2026Q4, reflecting a broadly decelerating top-line trend throughout the fiscal year.
- The dividend payout ratio reached 77.4% in FY2026 even as earnings contracted, raising concerns about whether the dividend growth trend is sustainable under continued profit pressure.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A sustained rebound in quarterly revenue and operating income beyond the 2026Q4 recovery — particularly if net margins begin expanding from the current 6.7% — would signal a genuine earnings inflection.
- A meaningful reduction in the dividend payout ratio, achieved through earnings growth rather than dividend cuts, would alleviate sustainability concerns and indicate improving financial health.
Bearish Triggers
- If the 2026Q4 operating income rebound to $1,329,000,000 proves temporary and quarterly earnings resume their earlier declining trend, the bear case for deteriorating profitability would strengthen.
- Further compression in net margin below the current 6.7% or operating margin below 8.4% would suggest worsening cost pressures or pricing challenges.
Risk Profile
Low RiskNIKE's Low risk rating is supported primarily by its conservative balance sheet, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53 and $38.4 billion in total assets suggesting manageable financial obligations. However, the volatile intra-year earnings pattern — with net income dipping to $520,000,000 in 2026Q3 before recovering to $1,069,000,000 in 2026Q4 — indicates that operational results can fluctuate materially within a single fiscal year.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.