OXY
Occidental Petroleum Corporation
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Dividend Income profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The composite score of 49.9/100 reflects a balance between meaningful near-term momentum in 2026Q1 and a weak FY2025 growth profile marked by declining revenue, net income, and EPS.
- Moderate profitability margins and steady dividend growth provided partial support to the score, while the elevated payout ratio and low return on assets tempered those contributions.
- The Energy Security macro theme assignment scored zero under the current model methodology, and the growth factor scored near its floor due to broad FY2025 contraction, both of which weighed on the composite.
Why Not Higher
- The growth factor scored near its floor due to simultaneous declines in revenue (-5.0%), net income (-23.0%), and diluted EPS (-34.0%) in FY2025, which significantly dragged on the overall score.
- The Energy Security macro theme assignment did not translate into any score contribution under the current model, and the 67.3% dividend payout ratio limited the dividend factor's upside.
Data Confidence
10 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Revenue declined from FY2024's $22,710,000,000 to FY2025's $21,569,000,000, a drop of 5.0%. Net income fell 23.0% over the same period, and diluted EPS contracted 34.0% from FY2024 to FY2025.
The model penalized OXY heavily for broad-based contraction across revenue, earnings, and per-share metrics in FY2025, resulting in a near-floor score for this factor.
In FY2025, OXY posted a net margin of 11.0% and an operating margin of 14.5%, while return on assets came in at 2.8%.
The model recognized meaningful operating and net margins as positive signals, but the relatively low return on assets of 2.8% in FY2025 tempered the overall profitability score to a mid-range result.
Filing evidence currently available does not support a more specific explanation for this factor.
Net income showed a dramatic surge in 2026Q1 to $3,359,000,000 after registering $468,000,000 in 2025Q2, $842,000,000 in 2025Q3, and $114,000,000 in 2025Q4. Revenue also rebounded in 2026Q1 to $5,569,000,000 after a sharp dip to $2,756,000,000 in 2025Q4.
The model rewarded the strong sequential acceleration in net income and revenue into 2026Q1, interpreting the sharp rebound as a positive near-term momentum signal despite the volatile quarterly pattern.
OXY's dividends per share have grown steadily from $0.52 in FY2022 to $0.72 in FY2023, $0.88 in FY2024, and $0.96 in FY2025. However, the dividend payout ratio stood at 67.3% of net income in FY2025.
The model credited the consistent multi-year dividend growth trend but discounted the score given the elevated 67.3% payout ratio in FY2025, which leaves limited cushion relative to earnings.
OXY is assigned to the Energy Security macro theme.
Although the company carries the Energy Security theme assignment, this designation did not translate into score under the model's current methodology.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
Occidental Petroleum posted a challenging FY2025, with revenue declining 5.0% to $21,569,000,000 and net income falling 23.0%, while diluted EPS contracted 34.0% year-over-year. Profitability metrics were mixed, with an 11.0% net margin and 14.5% operating margin offset by a modest 2.8% return on assets. However, the most recent quarter (2026Q1) showed a sharp rebound in both revenue and net income, providing a meaningful near-term momentum signal. The company also maintained a steady dividend growth trend, though a 67.3% payout ratio in FY2025 leaves limited earnings cushion, and the Energy Security macro theme assignment did not contribute to the composite score under the current model.
Plain English
OXY had a rough 2025 with falling sales and profits, but its most recent quarter showed a strong comeback in earnings and revenue, and it has been steadily raising its dividend — though it's paying out a large chunk of its profits to do so.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- Net income surged to $3,359,000,000 in 2026Q1 after bottoming at $114,000,000 in 2025Q4, signaling a powerful sequential earnings recovery.
- OXY has grown dividends per share every year from $0.52 in FY2022 to $0.96 in FY2025, demonstrating a consistent multi-year commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
- Operating and net margins of 14.5% and 11.0% respectively in FY2025 indicate the business retains meaningful profitability even during a down revenue year.
Bear Case
- Revenue fell 5.0% and net income dropped 23.0% in FY2025, reflecting broad-based contraction across the company's top and bottom lines.
- Diluted EPS contracted 34.0% from FY2024 to FY2025, a steep per-share earnings decline that signals deteriorating value for shareholders on an annual basis.
- The dividend payout ratio reached 67.3% of net income in FY2025, leaving limited financial cushion if earnings come under further pressure.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- Sustained revenue and net income growth in subsequent quarters following the strong 2026Q1 rebound would suggest the FY2025 contraction was temporary rather than structural.
- An improvement in return on assets above the current 2.8% would indicate the company is deploying its $84,186,000,000 asset base more efficiently.
Bearish Triggers
- A reversal of the 2026Q1 momentum — particularly if net income falls back toward the depressed 2025Q4 level of $114,000,000 — would undermine the recovery thesis.
- Further compression of the interest coverage ratio below its current 2.9 level would raise concerns about the company's ability to service its debt obligations.
Risk Profile
Medium RiskOXY's interest coverage ratio of 2.9 in FY2025 indicates a relatively thin buffer between operating income and interest obligations, suggesting limited room for earnings deterioration before debt servicing becomes strained. The highly volatile quarterly pattern — with net income swinging from $114,000,000 in 2025Q4 to $3,359,000,000 in 2026Q1 — adds uncertainty about the durability of the recent recovery.
Key Catalysts to Watch
The sharp rebound in net income to $3,359,000,000 and revenue to $5,569,000,000 in 2026Q1 represents a potential inflection point that could signal improving business conditions if sustained in future quarters.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.