TD.TO
The Toronto-Dominion Bank
Financial Services · Banks - Diversified · Canada · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Aggressive Growth profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The combination of a strong profitability sub-score (18.3/20) and a solid growth sub-score (17.5/20) provides a meaningful foundation that lifts the aggregate score to 58.9, reflecting core earnings quality from the FY2025 40-F.
- The momentum and dividend sub-scores each at 10.0/20 contribute neutrally, indicating neither a notable quarterly earnings acceleration nor a particularly outstanding dividend coverage profile relative to model benchmarks.
- The zero theme score and mid-range financial health score create a ceiling effect, preventing TD from scoring in the high-60s or above despite strong profitability fundamentals.
Why Not Higher
- The theme sub-score of 0.0/20 is the single largest source of score suppression, as the model found no mappable macro theme exposures for TD, meaning up to 20 additional points are structurally unavailable under the current model version.
- The financial health sub-score of 10.0/20 reflects leverage and balance sheet constraints typical of large diversified banks but penalized by the model, and combined with only 5/10 metrics mapped, the score lacks the breadth needed to reach the upper tier.
Data Confidence
5 / 10
Medium — some data gaps
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) is one of Canada's largest diversified financial institutions, operating across personal and commercial banking, wealth management, insurance, and wholesale banking in Canada and the United States, with a particularly significant retail banking footprint along the US Eastern Seaboard. The model assigned TD a score of 58.9/100 based on five of ten mappable core metrics from its FY2025 SEC EDGAR 40-F filing. The profitability sub-score of 18.3/20 reflects TD's historically strong returns on equity and resilient net margins characteristic of large Canadian banks, while the growth sub-score of 17.5/20 suggests meaningful year-over-year expansion in revenue, net income, or EPS as captured in the filing. The financial health sub-score of 10.0/20, however, signals elevated leverage or balance sheet constraints relative to the model's benchmarks, which is not unusual for a large systemically important bank but does cap the overall score. The theme sub-score of 0.0/20 indicates no identifiable macro theme exposures were mapped, which limits the score ceiling under the current model version. The key research tradeoff is between TD's demonstrably strong profitability fundamentals and the drag from financial health leverage metrics and absent theme exposure, leaving the bank as a mid-tier research candidate rather than a top-ranked one.
Plain English
TD is one of the biggest banks in Canada and also has a large presence in US retail banking. A score of 58.9 out of 100 means the model sees some real strengths — especially in how profitable the bank is — but also some concerns around balance sheet leverage and a lack of exposure to high-growth macro themes. The Medium risk rating reflects that TD is a large, established institution, but banking inherently carries leverage and credit cycle risk that can't be ignored.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- The profitability sub-score of 18.3/20 reflects strong return-on-equity and net margin performance as reported in the FY2025 40-F filing, suggesting TD generates earnings efficiently relative to its equity base.
- The growth sub-score of 17.5/20 indicates meaningful year-over-year improvement in key revenue or earnings metrics, pointing to an institution that is not stagnant despite its size.
- The dividend sub-score of 10.0/20, while moderate, reflects an established dividend per share track record and measurable free cash flow coverage, consistent with TD's long history of sustaining shareholder distributions through various credit cycles.
Bear Case
- The financial health sub-score of 10.0/20 signals that leverage ratios or interest coverage metrics as derived from the filing are a concern, a meaningful risk in a rising credit-loss environment.
- The theme sub-score of 0.0/20 indicates no mapped exposure to identifiable macro growth themes such as AI infrastructure, energy transition, or emerging markets, limiting the model's view of structural upside beyond core banking operations.
- Only 5 of 10 core model metrics were mappable from the EDGAR 40-F filing, which reduces scoring confidence to 5.0/10 and means the model may be missing material information that could push the score in either direction.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- If future filings show material improvement in TD's leverage ratios or interest coverage metrics, the financial health sub-score could rise significantly and push the aggregate score toward the mid-to-high 60s range.
- Identification and mapping of macro theme exposures — for example, TD's US expansion strategy or digital banking infrastructure investment — in subsequent model versions could add meaningful points to the currently zero theme sub-score.
Bearish Triggers
- A deterioration in net margins or return on equity as reported in the next 40-F filing, potentially driven by rising credit loss provisions or net interest margin compression, would directly weaken the profitability sub-score that currently anchors the bull case.
- If quarterly filing data reveals decelerating revenue or earnings trends, the momentum sub-score of 10.0/20 could fall, compounding pressure on the already mid-range aggregate score and potentially lowering the research label below 'Research Further'.
Red Flags
- The financial health sub-score of 10.0/20 combined with the inherently high leverage structure of large commercial banking operations warrants close monitoring of TD's capital adequacy ratios and loan-loss provisions as reported in future filings.
- A model confidence score of only 5.0/10 due to limited metric mapping means the 58.9 aggregate score is based on incomplete data, and researchers should seek supplementary filing detail before drawing firm conclusions.
Risk Profile
Medium RiskThe Medium risk rating reflects TD's status as a large, regulated, systemically important Canadian bank with relatively stable earnings, offset by the structural leverage inherent in commercial banking and the sensitivity of its US retail operations to North American credit cycle conditions. The 5.0/10 model confidence further reinforces that incomplete metric mapping introduces additional analytical uncertainty beyond fundamental business risk.
Key Catalysts to Watch
Key factors to monitor include the trajectory of TD's US retail banking integration and profitability as disclosed in future 40-F filings, as well as any changes in Canadian or US regulatory capital requirements that could affect the financial health sub-score. Quarterly trend data on loan-loss provisions and net interest income will be critical inputs for assessing whether the momentum sub-score improves or deteriorates in subsequent model updates.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.