TFII.TO
TFI International Inc.
Industrials · Trucking · Canada · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Dividend Income profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The overall model score of 38.8/100 is primarily anchored by a perfect dividend sub-score of 20.0/20, which alone prevents the score from falling into a much lower range despite weakness elsewhere.
- Profitability at 9.2/20 and financial health at 8.0/20 provide moderate support to the composite score, confirming that TFI International is not operationally distressed but is under measurable pressure.
- The score is held back from the midpoint by the growth sub-score of 3.5/20 and momentum sub-score of 4.0/20, which together signal that the company's recent financial trajectory, as derived from the 40-F, lacks the expansion characteristics needed to push the composite higher.
Why Not Higher
- The growth sub-score of 3.5/20 is the single largest drag on the composite, as weak year-over-year revenue, net income, and EPS performance directly limit upside across almost all scoring profiles, including dividend income.
- A theme score of 0.0/20 means TFI International receives no credit for macro tailwind exposure in the model's current framework, which structurally caps the composite score regardless of how strong its income metrics are.
Data Confidence
9 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
TFI International Inc. (TFII.TO) is a Canadian-headquartered transportation and logistics company operating across North America, providing truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL), package and courier, and logistics services. The company is a major player in the North American trucking sector and has grown substantially through acquisitions, including the landmark purchase of UPS Freight (rebranded TForce Freight). Against a goal profile of dividend income, the model assigns a composite score of 38.8/100, reflecting a significant divergence between TFII's genuine strengths and its current operational and financial momentum. The dividend sub-score of 20.0 out of 20 is the standout metric, indicating strong free cash flow payout discipline, a consistent dividend-per-share streak, robust FCF coverage of dividends, and meaningful DPS growth over time — all sourced directly from the 40-F filing. However, growth (3.5/20) and momentum (4.0/20) sub-scores reveal that year-over-year revenue, net income, and EPS expansion have been weak, and quarterly operational improvement has been limited, pulling the overall score down materially. The profitability sub-score of 9.2/20 and financial health sub-score of 8.0/20 paint a picture of a company that remains operationally viable but carries notable leverage, which is a consequence of its acquisition-driven growth strategy. The theme sub-score of 0.0/20 indicates that TFII's business model does not align with any of the tracked macro themes in the scoring model's current framework, which further suppresses the composite score. The research label of 'Monitor Only' reflects that, while the dividend profile is genuinely strong, the weak growth and momentum signals do not currently support a more favorable research designation across most investor goal profiles. The core research tradeoff for TFII is straightforward: the company scores exceptionally well for income-oriented research criteria but poorly on growth and near-term operational improvement metrics. Researchers focused on dividend income sustainability may find the sub-score profile more interesting than the headline composite score suggests, while those prioritizing earnings growth or operational acceleration will find little support in the current filing-derived data.
Plain English
TFI International is one of the largest trucking and freight companies in North America, moving goods by truck across Canada and the United States. The model score of 38.8 out of 100 is mostly dragged down by weak growth and low momentum in its financials — meaning the business hasn't been expanding revenues or profits strongly in recent periods. The High risk rating reflects the company's significant debt load from past acquisitions and the cyclical nature of the trucking industry. The one bright spot the model found is its dividend track record, which scored a perfect 20 out of 20, suggesting it has been a reliable and growing dividend payer based on its cash flow data.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- The dividend sub-score of 20.0/20 — the maximum possible — reflects an exceptional combination of FCF coverage of dividends, a consistent DPS growth streak, and a disciplined FCF payout ratio sourced directly from the 40-F filing, supporting the case that income sustainability is strong.
- The profitability sub-score of 9.2/20 indicates that TFI International maintains positive net and operating margins as well as meaningful return on assets, demonstrating that the core trucking and logistics business retains the ability to generate earnings even in a challenging freight environment.
- The financial health sub-score of 8.0/20 suggests that while leverage is elevated, interest coverage and balance sheet size remain within ranges that the model does not flag as critically impaired, indicating the company retains debt-servicing capacity based on filing data.
Bear Case
- The growth sub-score of 3.5/20 is critically weak, indicating that year-over-year revenue, net income, and EPS growth derived from the 40-F are either flat or declining, which is a significant structural concern for a company that has pursued an aggressive acquisition strategy.
- The momentum sub-score of 4.0/20 signals that quarterly trends in revenue, earnings, and margins have not been improving, suggesting that any near-term operational turnaround is not yet visible in the SEC filing-derived data.
- The theme sub-score of 0.0/20 reflects that TFII's business model does not register against any of the model's tracked macro growth themes, meaning it lacks the tailwind exposure that would otherwise support a higher research ranking in the current scoring framework.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A meaningful improvement in the growth sub-score — driven by filing-evidenced year-over-year revenue and EPS recovery in a future 40-F — would signal that TFI's acquisition investments are beginning to generate compounding returns and would support a higher composite score.
- An improvement in the momentum sub-score above 10.0/20, reflecting sequential quarterly gains in operating margins or earnings as captured in future regulatory filings, would indicate that operational efficiency initiatives are translating into measurable financial progress.
Bearish Triggers
- A reduction in the dividend sub-score from its current perfect 20.0/20 — for example, driven by deterioration in FCF coverage ratios or a break in the DPS growth streak as reported in a future 40-F — would remove the primary pillar supporting the current research view.
- A decline in the financial health sub-score below 6.0/20, reflecting increased leverage or deteriorating interest coverage as captured in regulatory filings, would elevate the risk profile further and could shift the research label from 'Monitor Only' to a more cautionary designation.
Red Flags
- The combination of an elevated leverage profile (contributing to the financial health sub-score of only 8.0/20) and near-stagnant growth (3.5/20) raises a concern that debt servicing costs could increasingly pressure free cash flow if earnings deteriorate further, as reflected in the 40-F filing data.
- The momentum sub-score of 4.0/20 indicates that margin and earnings trends on a sequential quarterly basis are weak, which in a cyclical and capital-intensive industry like trucking can be an early indicator of prolonged operational difficulty.
Risk Profile
High RiskThe High risk rating for TFI International reflects the combination of elevated acquisition-driven leverage on its balance sheet, weak near-term growth and momentum signals from the 40-F filing, and the inherently cyclical nature of the North American trucking industry, where freight volumes and pricing are sensitive to broader economic conditions. Researchers should be aware that even a strong dividend track record, as evidenced by the 20.0/20 dividend sub-score, does not insulate a company from balance sheet stress if earnings deteriorate in a prolonged freight downturn.
Key Catalysts to Watch
The key filing-derived factor to monitor for TFI International is whether future 40-F submissions show recovery in year-over-year revenue and EPS growth, which would directly lift the growth sub-score of 3.5/20 and signal that the TForce Freight integration and other acquisitions are generating the scale benefits the strategy was designed to produce. Researchers should also watch the FCF payout and interest coverage metrics in future filings, as these directly determine whether the perfect dividend sub-score of 20.0/20 can be sustained.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.