TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Dividend Income profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The dividend sub-score of 17.5/20 is the primary driver of the 58.9 composite, reflecting SEC-filing-derived evidence of a consistent dividend per share growth streak, a well-covered FCF payout ratio, and strong dividend per share growth CAGR.
- The profitability sub-score of 14.4/20 contributes positively, anchored in TJX's reported net margins and operating margins, which are structurally supported by the off-price buying model and its cost discipline at scale.
- A momentum sub-score of 12.0/20 indicates modest but positive quarterly improvement in filing-derived revenue and earnings metrics, preventing a drag on the composite score despite the absence of exceptional growth acceleration.
Why Not Higher
- The financial health sub-score of 10.0/20 meaningfully constrains the composite, as the leverage and interest coverage metrics reported in TJX's FY2026 10-K do not support a high-tier score, limiting the overall model output despite strong dividend and profitability readings.
- The theme score of 0.0/20 adds nothing to the composite — TJX's off-price retail model does not map to any of the macro growth themes tracked by the scoring model, representing a structural ceiling on how high the total score can reach under the current framework.
Data Confidence
9 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
The TJX Companies, Inc. is the largest off-price apparel and home fashions retailer in the United States and worldwide, operating banners including T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Sierra, and HomeSense across North America and internationally through T.K. Maxx and Homesense in Europe and Australia. The company's business model centers on opportunistic buying of excess inventory from brand manufacturers and department stores, passing those savings to consumers while generating strong cash flows from its asset-light, high-turnover retail operations. With a model score of 58.9/100, TJX scores most strongly in the dividend sub-category (17.5/20), reflecting a well-supported dividend program backed by free cash flow, a multi-year streak of dividend per share growth, and a conservative FCF payout ratio — the hallmarks of a mature, cash-generative retailer. Profitability (14.4/20) is also a relative strength, consistent with TJX's historically robust operating and net margins for a retailer of its scale. The key research tradeoff is that while TJX is a high-confidence income candidate — the model assigns 9.0/10 confidence and its best-fit profile is dividend income at 66.0 — scores in financial health (10.0/20) and a zero theme score reflect constraints around balance sheet leverage and limited exposure to identifiable high-growth macro themes, preventing a higher composite score.
Plain English
TJX is the company behind T.J. Maxx and Marshalls — it buys leftover inventory from brands and sells it cheaply in its stores. The model score of 58.9 out of 100 with a Medium risk rating suggests it's a solid, established business that particularly stands out for its dividend track record, but it's not a high-growth story and carries some balance sheet considerations that keep the score from going higher. Researchers focused on dividend income will find the most relevant signal here, while those seeking aggressive growth may want to look elsewhere.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- The dividend sub-score of 17.5/20 indicates TJX maintains a strong free cash flow payout ratio, a sustained dividend per share growth streak, and robust FCF coverage, making it a research-grade candidate for dividend income objectives.
- A profitability sub-score of 14.4/20 reflects above-average net and operating margins for the apparel retail sector, consistent with TJX's differentiated off-price model that structurally supports margin resilience across retail cycles.
- The model assigns a high confidence rating of 9.0/10 based on 9 of 10 core metrics being mapped from SEC EDGAR filings, meaning the 58.9 composite score rests on a near-complete and well-supported data foundation rather than estimates.
Bear Case
- The financial health sub-score of 10.0/20 is the weakest fundamental pillar in this report, suggesting that leverage ratios and interest coverage metrics derived from the 10-K filing are not at the highest tier, which warrants closer scrutiny of the balance sheet structure.
- The theme score of 0.0/20 indicates that TJX's business model has no material mapped exposure to identifiable high-growth macro themes, which limits its appeal for researchers seeking companies with structural tailwinds beyond its core off-price retail niche.
- The aggressive growth profile scores only 55.8, the weakest of all goal profiles, reflecting that the growth sub-score of 12.5/20 does not signal standout year-over-year acceleration in revenue, net income, or EPS as reported in the FY2026 10-K filing.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- Meaningful improvement in the financial health sub-score — driven by a reduction in reported leverage ratios or improved interest coverage as reflected in future 10-K filings — would directly raise the composite score and reduce the primary balance sheet concern.
- Acceleration in the growth sub-score beyond its current 12.5/20, evidenced by faster year-over-year gains in revenue, net income, or EPS in upcoming annual filings, would broaden TJX's appeal beyond the dividend income profile toward a stronger all-around research candidate.
Bearish Triggers
- A deterioration in the dividend sub-score — such as a reduction in the DPS growth streak, a tightening of the FCF payout ratio toward less conservative levels, or weakening FCF coverage — would undermine the primary investment thesis supporting the current model score.
- A decline in the profitability sub-score driven by reported margin compression in future 10-K filings — whether from cost inflation, inventory buying challenges, or structural pricing pressure — would weaken the fundamental earnings quality underpinning the current rating.
Red Flags
- The financial health sub-score of 10.0/20 is the lowest sub-score in the model and warrants examination of TJX's reported leverage ratio and interest coverage figures in the FY2026 10-K to assess debt capacity and coverage adequacy.
Risk Profile
Medium RiskThe Medium risk rating reflects TJX's position as a large, established retailer with consistent profitability and dividend coverage, offset by balance sheet leverage considerations captured in the financial health sub-score and exposure to consumer cyclical spending patterns that can fluctuate with macroeconomic conditions.
Key Catalysts to Watch
The key factors to monitor are the trajectory of TJX's reported free cash flow generation and dividend per share growth in future 10-K filings, as sustained strength here would reinforce the dividend income thesis, while any shift in leverage levels or margin trends would be the primary signals to reassess the current model score.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.