TSCO
Tractor Supply Company
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Safe Long-Term Investing profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The composite score of 48.4/100 reflects a mixed profile: exceptional financial health is offset by weak near-term momentum and only modest growth and profitability scores.
- The absence of a macro theme assignment means TSCO receives no thematic tailwind, which weighs on the composite alongside the subdued growth and momentum readings.
- The 'Research Further' label captures the tension between TSCO's strong structural balance sheet and its deteriorating recent quarterly performance, warranting deeper due diligence before a firm view is established.
Why Not Higher
- Persistent quarterly deceleration — with net income dropping from $430,043,000 in 2025Q2 to $164,524,000 in 2026Q1 — and near-flat annual EPS growth of just +1.0% limit the growth and momentum contributions to the composite.
- The lack of any macro theme assignment means a full scoring dimension contributes nothing to the total, and the mid-range net margin of 7.1% prevents the profitability factor from reaching the upper tier.
Data Confidence
10 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Revenue grew from FY2024's $14,883,231,000 to FY2025's $15,524,046,000, a gain of +4.3%, while net income declined slightly from FY2024's $1,101,240,000 to FY2025's $1,096,087,000 (-0.5%). Diluted EPS edged up only +1.0%, from FY2024's $2.04 to FY2025's $2.06.
The model rewarded modest top-line expansion but penalized the near-flat to slightly negative bottom-line trajectory; a low single-digit revenue gain paired with declining net income and minimal EPS growth limits the overall growth score.
In FY2025, TSCO posted a net margin of 7.1%, an operating margin of 9.5%, and a return on assets of 10.0%.
These figures reflect solid but not exceptional profitability; the model rewarded the double-digit ROA and healthy operating margin while the net margin, though positive, kept the score in the mid-range rather than the upper tier.
In FY2025, TSCO carried a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.06 and an interest coverage ratio of 21.2, against a total asset base of $10,933,679,000.
The model rewarded the extremely low leverage and very high interest coverage, which together signal a strong capacity to service obligations; the large asset base further supports the high score.
Over the last four reported quarters, revenue declined sequentially from $4,439,729,000 in 2025Q2 to $3,719,044,000 in 2025Q3, then partially recovered to $3,898,321,000 in 2025Q4, before falling again to $3,592,046,000 in 2026Q1. Net income and operating income followed a similar downward trend, with net income dropping from $430,043,000 in 2025Q2 to $164,524,000 in 2026Q1 and operating income falling from $577,812,000 in 2025Q2 to $233,431,000 in 2026Q1.
The model penalized the persistent deceleration in both revenue and earnings across the trailing four quarters, with no sustained recovery evident, which limits the momentum score.
TSCO has grown its dividends per share each year from FY2022's $0.74 to FY2023's $0.82, FY2024's $0.88, and FY2025's $0.92, while maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 44.5% of net income in FY2025.
The model recognized the consistent multi-year dividend growth streak, but the mid-range payout ratio and the modest absolute yield implied by the trend likely kept the score from reaching the upper tier.
TSCO is not currently assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes in the model.
The absence of a theme assignment means no thematic tailwind contributed to the score; this reflects the model's current classification state and should not be read as a commentary on the company's business quality.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) posted modest top-line growth of +4.3% in FY2025, reaching $15.5 billion in revenue, but net income slipped slightly and diluted EPS rose only +1.0%, reflecting a near-flat bottom-line trajectory. The company's balance sheet is a clear standout, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.06 and an interest coverage ratio of 21.2, signaling very low financial risk. However, recent quarterly momentum has been a headwind, with both revenue and earnings declining across the trailing four quarters. The composite score of 48.4/100 and a 'Research Further' label reflect a business with solid fundamentals but meaningful near-term execution questions.
Plain English
TSCO is a financially healthy company with very little debt and steady dividends, but its recent quarterly results have been trending downward and its overall growth and earnings momentum are underwhelming right now.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- TSCO's balance sheet is exceptionally strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.06 and an interest coverage ratio of 21.2, giving the company significant financial flexibility and resilience.
- The company has grown its dividend per share every year from $0.74 in FY2022 to $0.92 in FY2025, demonstrating a consistent multi-year commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
- A double-digit return on assets of 10.0% and an operating margin of 9.5% in FY2025 indicate that TSCO generates solid returns from its asset base relative to many retail peers.
Bear Case
- Quarterly momentum has deteriorated persistently, with net income falling from $430,043,000 in 2025Q2 to $164,524,000 in 2026Q1 and operating income declining from $577,812,000 to $233,431,000 over the same period, with no sustained recovery evident.
- Despite top-line growth of +4.3%, net income actually declined -0.5% year-over-year in FY2025, suggesting that revenue gains are not translating into improved profitability.
- TSCO is not assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes in the model, meaning it receives no thematic tailwind contribution to its composite score.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A sustained reversal in quarterly earnings trends — particularly a meaningful recovery in net income and operating income from the 2026Q1 trough — would signal improving operational execution.
- Expansion of net margin beyond the current 7.1% level, demonstrating that revenue growth is beginning to flow through to the bottom line, would strengthen the investment case.
Bearish Triggers
- If the sequential quarterly revenue and earnings declines deepen beyond the 2026Q1 levels already observed, it would suggest structural rather than seasonal pressure on the business.
- A deterioration in the currently strong balance sheet metrics — such as a meaningful rise in the debt-to-equity ratio from its current 0.06 level — would reduce one of TSCO's primary differentiators.
Risk Profile
Low RiskTSCO's financial health profile is a low-risk anchor, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06 and interest coverage of 21.2 indicating a very strong capacity to service obligations. However, the persistent quarterly earnings decline — operating income falling from $577,812,000 in 2025Q2 to $233,431,000 in 2026Q1 — introduces operational risk that investors should monitor closely.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.