TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
Communication Services · Advertising Agencies · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Aggressive Growth profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- Strong annual growth — revenue +18.5%, net income +12.8%, EPS +15.4% — and solid profitability metrics anchored the score, but were not enough to offset structural zeroes in dividend and theme.
- The momentum factor reflected a mixed picture: a strong sequential build through 2025Q4 was offset by a sharp 2026Q1 pullback in revenue, operating income, and net income.
- The financial health factor scored below average, and with dividend and theme both at zero, the composite settled at 45.2/100 with a High Risk rating.
Why Not Higher
- The confirmed absence of any dividend payment and the lack of a macro-theme assignment both scored zero, weighing on the composite score.
- The sharp 2026Q1 decline — revenue falling to $688,857,000 and operating income to $66,647,000 after strong 2025Q4 results — limited the momentum score to a mid-range outcome.
Data Confidence
7 / 10
High — most data fields present
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Revenue grew from FY2024's $2,444,831,000 to FY2025's $2,896,284,000, a gain of +18.5%. Net income rose +12.8% over the same period, and diluted EPS increased +15.4% from FY2024 to FY2025.
The model rewarded broad-based top- and bottom-line expansion across FY2024 to FY2025, with double-digit growth in revenue, net income, and EPS all contributing to a near-top-tier growth score.
In FY2025, The Trade Desk posted an operating margin of 20.3%, a net margin of 15.3%, and a return on assets of 7.2%.
The model rewarded the combination of a healthy operating margin, a solid net margin, and a positive return on assets in FY2025, reflecting efficient conversion of revenue into profit and productive use of the company's asset base.
Filing evidence currently available does not support a more specific explanation for this factor.
Revenue and operating income accelerated from 2025Q2 through 2025Q4 (revenue: $694,039,000, $739,433,000, $846,791,000; operating income: $116,777,000, $161,219,000, $256,873,000), but both metrics declined sharply in 2026Q1 to $688,857,000 and $66,647,000 respectively. Net income followed the same pattern, peaking at $186,950,000 in 2025Q4 before falling to $39,997,000 in 2026Q1.
The model appears to have balanced the strong sequential build through 2025Q4 against the pronounced pullback in 2026Q1, resulting in a mid-range momentum score that reflects the mixed recent trend rather than sustained acceleration.
The Trade Desk does not currently pay a dividend; this is a genuine characteristic of the company, not a data limitation.
Because the model's dividend component rewards income distributions to shareholders, a confirmed non-payer receives a score of zero on this factor.
The Trade Desk is not currently assigned to any of the 24 tracked macro themes in the model.
The absence of a theme assignment means no macro-theme tailwind contributed to the score; this is a neutral classification outcome and does not reflect on the company's business quality.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
The Trade Desk delivered strong full-year results for FY2025, with revenue rising +18.5% to $2,896,284,000 and net income growing +12.8% to $443,304,000, supported by a healthy operating margin of 20.3% and a net margin of 15.3%. However, recent quarterly momentum has turned mixed: after a strong sequential build through 2025Q4, revenue and operating income fell sharply in 2026Q1 to $688,857,000 and $66,647,000 respectively. The company pays no dividend and carries no current macro-theme assignment, both of which weighed on the composite score. Overall, the model rates TTD as High Risk with a total score of 45.2/100 and a label of Research Further.
Plain English
The Trade Desk grew its sales and profits nicely over the past year, but its most recent quarter showed a big drop in earnings, it pays no dividends, and it doesn't fit any of the model's special investment themes right now — so while the business looks solid, the overall score lands in the middle and flags it as worth more investigation before acting.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue grew +18.5% year-over-year from FY2024 to FY2025, reaching $2,896,284,000, demonstrating strong top-line momentum on an annual basis.
- The company posted an operating margin of 20.3% and a net margin of 15.3% in FY2025, reflecting efficient conversion of revenue into profit.
- Diluted EPS increased +15.4% from FY2024 to FY2025, showing that per-share earnings growth kept pace with — and slightly outpaced — net income growth.
Bear Case
- After peaking at $846,791,000 in 2025Q4, revenue dropped to $688,857,000 in 2026Q1, signaling a pronounced near-term pullback in business activity.
- Operating income fell from $256,873,000 in 2025Q4 to $66,647,000 in 2026Q1, and net income dropped from $186,950,000 to $39,997,000 over the same period, representing a steep sequential decline in profitability.
- The company pays no dividend and holds no macro-theme assignment, meaning neither income distributions nor a thematic tailwind contribute to the composite score.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A sustained recovery in quarterly revenue and operating income back toward or above 2025Q4 levels would suggest the 2026Q1 pullback was temporary rather than structural.
- An improvement in financial health metrics — which currently contribute a below-average score — could meaningfully lift the composite rating.
Bearish Triggers
- If the 2026Q1 decline in revenue and operating income continues into subsequent quarters, it would undermine the strong annual growth story and further pressure the momentum score.
- Any deterioration in the operating margin below the current 20.3% level would signal that profitability is eroding alongside slowing top-line growth.
Risk Profile
High RiskThe momentum data reveals a pronounced reversal in 2026Q1, with net income dropping to $39,997,000 from $186,950,000 in 2025Q4, raising questions about near-term earnings sustainability. The financial health factor scored below average, adding further uncertainty to the overall risk profile and supporting the High Risk rating.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.