VST
Vistra Corp.
Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Dividend Income profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- The composite score of 43.1/100 reflects a mixed profile: strong revenue growth and an excellent dividend track record are offset by a steep decline in net income and EPS, thin net and asset return margins, and a heavily leveraged balance sheet.
- The theme factor scored zero despite Vistra being assigned to the high-profile AI Infrastructure and Nuclear & Uranium macro themes, which weighed on the composite without contributing any positive score.
- Quarterly momentum is generally positive but uneven, with net income volatility—particularly the 2025Q4 trough—preventing a stronger momentum contribution to the overall score.
Why Not Higher
- The sharp contraction in net income (-64.5%) and diluted EPS (-68.9%) from FY2024 to FY2025, combined with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.34, significantly penalized the growth and financial health factors and capped the composite score.
- Despite two macro theme assignments (AI Infrastructure and Nuclear & Uranium), the theme factor contributed zero to the score, limiting the total composite from reaching a higher range.
Data Confidence
10 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Why This Score
Grounded in figures from this company's SEC EDGAR filings — not a restatement of the score itself.
Revenue grew from FY2024's $14,761,000,000 to FY2025's $17,586,000,000, a gain of +19.1%, but net income fell sharply from FY2024's $2,659,000,000 to FY2025's $944,000,000 (-64.5%), and diluted EPS dropped from FY2024's $7.00 to FY2025's $2.18 (-68.9%).
The model rewarded the strong top-line expansion but heavily penalized the steep contraction in bottom-line profitability, resulting in a below-midpoint score that reflects the mixed nature of Vistra's FY2024-to-FY2025 growth profile.
In FY2025, Vistra posted an operating margin of 10.8%, a net margin of 5.4%, and a return on assets of 2.3%.
The model reflects a company that maintains positive margins at every level but whose relatively thin net margin and low asset returns constrain the score to just below the midpoint, suggesting profitability that is present but not yet exceptional.
In FY2025, Vistra carried a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.34 against total assets of $41,550,000,000.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 3.34 in FY2025 signals a heavily leveraged balance sheet, which the model penalizes significantly, driving the score well below the midpoint despite the company's large asset base.
Revenue across the last four quarters rose from $3,753,000,000 in 2025Q2 to $5,001,000,000 in 2026Q1, while operating income climbed from $515,000,000 in 2025Q2 to $1,499,000,000 in 2026Q1. Net income was more volatile, dipping to $233,000,000 in 2025Q4 before surging to $1,029,000,000 in 2026Q1.
The model captures a generally accelerating revenue and operating income trend over the trailing four quarters, but the uneven net income pattern—particularly the 2025Q4 trough—introduces volatility that tempers the momentum score.
Vistra has grown dividends per share every year from FY2022's $0.724 through FY2023's $0.8205, FY2024's $0.8735, and FY2025's $0.9015, while maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 32.4% in FY2025.
The model rewards the consistent multi-year dividend growth streak and the conservative payout ratio in FY2025, which signals that distributions are well-covered by earnings and have room to continue growing, producing a near-top score for this factor.
Vistra is assigned to the macro themes of AI Infrastructure and Nuclear & Uranium.
Although Vistra carries two high-profile macro theme assignments, this assignment did not translate into a positive score under the model's current methodology for this factor.
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
Vistra Corp. delivered strong top-line growth of +19.1% in FY2025, reaching $17,586,000,000 in revenue, but bottom-line results deteriorated sharply, with net income falling from $2,659,000,000 to $944,000,000 (-64.5%) and diluted EPS dropping from $7.00 to $2.18 (-68.9%). The company maintains positive operating and net margins of 10.8% and 5.4% respectively, yet a heavily leveraged balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.34 poses meaningful financial risk. On the positive side, Vistra has grown its dividend per share every year from FY2022 through FY2025 while keeping its payout ratio at a conservative 32.4%, and recent quarterly momentum shows accelerating revenue and operating income into 2026Q1. The composite score of 43.1/100 with a Very High risk rating and a Monitor Only label reflects this uneven profile.
Plain English
Vistra is bringing in more revenue than ever, but its profits dropped sharply last year, it carries a lot of debt, and while its dividend keeps growing steadily, the overall picture is mixed enough that the model flags it as high-risk and worth watching rather than acting on right now.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue has grown consistently, rising +19.1% year-over-year to $17,586,000,000 in FY2025, and quarterly revenue has continued climbing from $3,753,000,000 in 2025Q2 to $5,001,000,000 in 2026Q1, signaling durable top-line momentum.
- Vistra has grown dividends per share every year from $0.724 in FY2022 to $0.9015 in FY2025, while maintaining a conservative payout ratio of 32.4%, suggesting distributions are well-covered and have room to keep growing.
- Operating income surged to $1,499,000,000 in 2026Q1 from $515,000,000 in 2025Q2, indicating that operational profitability is accelerating even as net income remains volatile.
Bear Case
- Net income collapsed from $2,659,000,000 in FY2024 to $944,000,000 in FY2025 (-64.5%), and diluted EPS fell from $7.00 to $2.18 (-68.9%), signaling a severe deterioration in bottom-line profitability despite strong revenue growth.
- A debt-to-equity ratio of 3.34 in FY2025 reflects a heavily leveraged balance sheet, which introduces significant financial risk and constrains the company's flexibility.
- Net income has been highly volatile on a quarterly basis, dipping to just $233,000,000 in 2025Q4 before rebounding, making earnings predictability a concern.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A sustained recovery in net income and EPS back toward FY2024 levels, combined with meaningful debt reduction, would materially improve the financial health and profitability scores.
- Continued acceleration in quarterly operating income beyond the $1,499,000,000 recorded in 2026Q1 would strengthen the case that the FY2025 earnings decline was transitory.
Bearish Triggers
- Any reversal in the recent quarterly revenue and operating income growth trend, or a further increase in the already elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 3.34, would deepen concerns about financial sustainability.
- A cut or pause in dividend growth after four consecutive years of increases would undermine one of the stock's strongest scoring factors.
Risk Profile
Very High RiskVistra's debt-to-equity ratio of 3.34 in FY2025 signals a heavily leveraged balance sheet that amplifies financial risk, and the company's net income has shown significant quarterly volatility, including a trough of $233,000,000 in 2025Q4, making earnings stability uncertain.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.