WMT
Walmart Inc.
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores · United States · Stock
Score Breakdown
Scored for Safe Long-Term Investing profile
Sub-scores are 0–20 each; Model Score is weighted by your selected investment goal. How it works →
Why Ranked Here
- Walmart's total model score of 54.3/100 is anchored by a leading financial health sub-score of 18.0/20, reflecting the scale, leverage management, and interest coverage characteristics documented in the FY2026 10-K.
- The growth sub-score of 12.5/20 and profitability sub-score of 10.4/20 are mid-range scores reflecting positive but unspectacular year-over-year revenue, net income, and EPS growth alongside thin margins typical of the discount store sector.
- The 10/10 core metrics mapped from EDGAR filings means the model has full data coverage, contributing to a confidence rating of 10.0/10, which means the 54.3 score reflects complete information rather than estimated or missing data points.
Why Not Higher
- The theme sub-score of 0.0/20 is the single largest constraint on a higher total score — with no macro theme exposure identified in the FY2026 filing cycle, Walmart forfeits up to 20 points that thematically aligned companies would capture.
- The profitability sub-score of 10.4/20 reflects the low net and operating margin reality of discount retail at scale, and without a meaningful improvement in margin profile, the model has limited room to award higher profitability points regardless of revenue size.
Data Confidence
10 / 10
Very High — full data coverage
Research Summary
AI-generated analysis reflects data and conditions as of the report date shown above. Verify any specific figures through primary sources before acting on this analysis.
Walmart Inc. is the world's largest retailer by revenue, operating a vast network of discount stores, supercenters, Sam's Club warehouse locations, and a growing e-commerce platform across the United States and internationally. The company's FY2026 10-K filing underpins a model score of 54.3/100, which reflects a fundamentally sound but modestly scored business. Walmart's strongest sub-score is financial health at 18.0/20, consistent with the scale of its balance sheet and its ability to service debt obligations, while growth (12.5/20), profitability (10.4/20), and dividend (8.8/20) scores reflect the characteristic trade-offs of a low-margin, high-volume retailer operating at massive scale. The theme score of 0.0/20 is a meaningful drag, indicating no identified macro theme exposure in the model's framework for this filing cycle. The core research tradeoff here is stability versus upside. Walmart's financial health score is among the strongest a large-cap defensive retailer can achieve, and its Low risk rating reflects the consistency and scale of its cash flows. However, the relatively modest profitability sub-score (10.4/20) reflects the structural reality of thin net and operating margins inherent to the discount retail model, and the growth sub-score of 12.5/20 suggests that while Walmart is growing, the pace is not exceptional relative to higher-scoring growth-oriented businesses in the model. The momentum sub-score of 10.0/20 indicates that quarterly improvements in revenue, earnings, and margins have been measured rather than dramatic. For researchers aligned with a Safe Long-Term Investing goal profile, Walmart scores best at 59.8 under that profile, which is its highest-scoring alignment — reinforcing that the filing data supports a stable, defensive research candidate rather than a high-growth or speculative one. The gap between the best (59.8) and weakest (53.3 for speculative opportunities) profiles is narrow, which reflects Walmart's balanced but unexceptional scoring across the board rather than a company with extreme strengths or weaknesses in any single dimension.
Plain English
Walmart is the massive discount retailer you already know — groceries, general merchandise, Sam's Club, and a growing online business. A model score of 54.3/100 means the filing data shows a financially solid company, but not one generating exceptional growth or fat profit margins. The Low risk rating reflects Walmart's financial health and balance sheet strength, making it a research candidate more suited to people studying stable, long-term businesses rather than high-growth opportunities. The score is held back mainly by thin profitability margins and no identified macro theme exposure in this filing cycle.
Bull Case vs. Bear Case
Bull Case
- The financial health sub-score of 18.0/20 is the model's strongest dimension for Walmart, reflecting strong balance sheet scale, manageable leverage, and solid interest coverage as reported in the FY2026 10-K filing.
- Walmart's best-fit goal profile is Safe Long-Term Investing at a score of 59.8, suggesting the filing data supports a defensively positioned research candidate with relatively consistent financial characteristics.
- The dividend sub-score of 8.8/20, while not exceptional, reflects positive free cash flow payout dynamics, dividend per share streak, and FCF coverage that support the view of a business capable of sustaining shareholder distributions over time.
Bear Case
- The profitability sub-score of 10.4/20 reflects the structural low-margin nature of discount retail, with net and operating margins that are thin relative to higher-scoring industries in the model.
- The theme sub-score of 0.0/20 means Walmart has zero identified macro theme exposures in this model cycle, which is a meaningful drag on the overall 54.3 score and limits its appeal as a thematic research candidate.
- A momentum sub-score of 10.0/20 indicates that sequential quarterly improvements in revenue, earnings, and margins as reported in the 10-K filings have been incremental rather than accelerating, limiting the near-term scoring uplift.
What Could Change the Picture
Bullish Triggers
- A measurable improvement in operating or net margins in a future 10-K filing — driven by higher-margin segments such as advertising, membership fees, or e-commerce fulfillment economics — would likely lift the profitability sub-score above 10.4/20 and push the overall model score higher.
- If a future filing cycle maps Walmart's business activities to one or more qualifying macro themes in the model framework, the theme sub-score could shift from 0.0 toward a meaningful positive contribution, materially improving the total score.
Bearish Triggers
- A deterioration in the financial health sub-score — driven by rising leverage ratios or declining interest coverage as reported in future 10-K filings — would undermine Walmart's primary scoring strength and challenge the Low risk rating.
- A reversal in the dividend sub-score metrics, such as a declining free cash flow payout coverage ratio or interruption in dividend per share growth as documented in future filings, would weaken the case for Walmart as a Safe Long-Term Investing research candidate.
Red Flags
- The theme sub-score of 0.0/20 is a structural scoring gap — Walmart's filing data did not map to any of the model's macro themes, which means a meaningful portion of the maximum possible score (20 points) is entirely absent and suppresses the total well below what the financial health score alone would imply.
Risk Profile
Low RiskThe Low risk rating for Walmart reflects the company's strong financial health sub-score of 18.0/20, which captures its balance sheet scale, leverage management, and interest coverage as reported in FY2026 SEC filings — characteristics that the model associates with financial resilience rather than fragility. For a discount retailer operating at this scale with consistent cash flow generation evidenced in the filing data, the model does not flag elevated financial distress risk.
Key Catalysts to Watch
The key variable to monitor in future EDGAR filings is whether Walmart's profitability metrics show margin expansion from higher-margin business lines such as Walmart Connect advertising or Sam's Club membership — this is the most direct path to a higher profitability sub-score. Equally, any filing-period mapping to a macro theme would represent the largest single-point gain available to Walmart's model score given the current 0.0/20 theme score.
This report is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice — always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.